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新世界的新开发银行——金砖国家开发银行

2013-05-03 14:51

3月,德班峰会结束时,金砖国家的领导人 (巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)宣布将建立一个新的开发银行,旨在“为金砖国家和其他新兴经济体以及发展中国家基础设施和可持续发展项目提供资源”。

这个决定的重要性怎么强调都不为过。首先,它反映了过去四十年间巨大的经济发展成就 (金砖四国的GDP总量高于布雷顿森林体系创建时发达国家的GDP总量)和全球经济力量的重新平衡。事实上,这一决定表明金砖四国的能力和意愿,共同努力,为自己的利益和整个世界的。新兴市场和发展中国家把未来掌握在自己的手中,而发达国家却忙于应付自己造成的问题。

新的开发银行显然是需要的。新兴市场经济体和低收入国家的基础设施需求是巨大的—— 14亿人仍然没有可靠的电力,9亿人无法获得干净的水,26亿人没有足够的卫生设施。同时,估计在接下来的25年里,有20亿人将搬到城市。决策者必须确保投资是环境可持续性型的。

为了应对发展中国家面临的这样那样的挑战,基础设施支出在未来几十年将增加大约8000亿美元至每年至少2万亿美元。否则,它将无法实现长期减贫和包容性增长。

私人部门可以满足这些需求中的一部分,但它只能做到这一步,尤其是鉴于基础设施项目的风险,巨大的前期成本以及全球金融市场高周期性灵敏度。资金缺口是现有的国际金融机构无法满足的——先进国家表现不佳意味着重大的资产重组是不可能的。多边开发银行和海外发展援助提供的年度基础设施融资的数量可能不超过400至600亿美元,或预期需求的2至3%。

建立在新兴市场和发展中国家的开发银行可以缩小这一差距,并成为一个强大的变革催化剂,无论是在发展中国家——而通过协作和范例——还是在现有的机构。今天的世界与世界银行和许多地区开发银行成立时有着明显的不同。金砖国家提出建立新的开发银行为反映这些变化提供了重要的机会,它将有现代的金融工具、强大的治理能力和广泛的授权。

例如,金融市场的改变(包括主权财富基金和公共养老基金中大量的资金)给新发展伙伴关系提供了机遇,新的开发银行可以帮助促进和协调。所以也应该部署广泛的现代金融工具使它能够满足各种不同的项目需求,同时保证足够的风险管理。

新银行应该通过集体行动共担和降低风险,以最大化其乘数效;建立采用创新的且具有成本效益的方法的强有力的范例;并通过其政策和体制影响项目融资。

旧的机构要试图适应,他们的治理仍然跟不上当今的经济和政治现实。新银行的治理结构还有待解决,但它有望更符合当代最佳实践。最重要的是,新的开发银行将站在发展中国家和新兴市场的视角和利益上发出更大的声音。

与过时的治理安排一样,现有多边机构的发展理念明显不同于现代发展思维。例如,没有意识到气候变化所带来的挑战,也没有认识到所有国家(包括那些发展中国家)必须减少温室气体的排放,适应变化,因为这些变化会特别不利于穷国。同样,没有理解包容性可持续经济增长道路上所蕴含的创新和机遇。

当然,世界银行和地区性开发银行现在认识到了这样的需求,新的开发银行不应该减轻发达国家的责任。但是,由于发达国家对发展中国家的援助不足,新银行可以向发展中国家和新兴市场提供不要的帮助,当他们为了经济增长和减贫进行更聪明、更可持续的基础设施投资时。考虑迅速采取行动的需要——鉴于发达国家回应过程缓慢——这个新机构将很受欢迎。

通过促进向新的多极增长和需求的过渡,帮助平衡全球储蓄和投资,引导过剩流动性的有效利用,新银行可以对全球经济健康做出很大贡献。它不仅发展中国家和新兴经济体可持续发展的动力,也将促进现有多边金融机构的改革——改变我们的一切,发达国家和发展中国家都一样,且都将受益。

A New World’s New Development Bank

2013-05-03 14:51

At the conclusion of their summit in Durban in March, the leaders of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) announced their intention to establish a New Development Bank aimed at “mobilizing resources for infrastructure and sustainable development projects in BRICS and other emerging economies and developing countries.”

The significance of this decision cannot be overemphasized. For starters, it reflects the enormous successes in economic development during the last four decades (the BRICS’ aggregate GDP is now greater than that of the advanced countries when the Bretton Woods institutions were founded) and the rebalancing of global economic power that this implies. Indeed, the decision demonstrates the BRICS’ ability and willingness to work together, for their own benefit and for that of the entire world. Emerging markets and developing countries are taking the future into their own hands – at a time when rich countries are muddling through their own self-inflicted problems.

A new development bank is clearly needed. The infrastructure requirements alone in emerging-market economies and low-income countries are huge – 1.4 billion people still have no reliable electricity, 900 million lack access to clean water, and 2.6 billion do not have adequate sanitation. At the same time, an estimated two billion people will move to cities in the next quarter-century. And policymakers must ensure that the investments are environmentally sustainable.

To meet these and the other challenges confronting the developing world, infrastructure spending will have to rise from around $800 billion to at least $2 trillion annually in the coming decades. Otherwise, it will be impossible to achieve long-term poverty reduction and inclusive growth.

While the private sector can meet some of these needs, it can go only so far, especially given the nature of infrastructure projects’ risks, the huge upfront costs, and the high cyclical sensitivity of global financial markets. The funding gap is beyond what existing international financial institutions can meet – and the advanced countries’ malaise means that significant recapitalization is not in the cards. Annual infrastructure financing from multilateral development banks and overseas development assistance is likely to amount to no more than $40-60 billion, or 2-3% of projected needs.

A development bank anchored in emerging markets and developing countries can help to address this gap and become a powerful catalyst for change, both in the developing world and – through collaboration and example – in existing institutions. The world today is markedly different from the world at the time of the founding of the World Bank and many of the regional development banks. The BRICS’ proposed New Development Bank presents an important opportunity to reflect these changes, with modern financial instruments, strong governance, and a broad-based mandate.

For example, changes in financial markets (including the large amounts of money in sovereign wealth funds and public pension funds) provide opportunities for new development partnerships, which the New Development Bank can help to catalyze and orchestrate. So, too, should its deployment of a wide range of modern instruments enable it to meet the diverse range of project needs while ensuring adequate risk management.

The new bank should maximize its multiplier effects by sharing and reducing risk through collective action and “crowding in” other financing; by setting a powerful example in adopting innovative and cost-effective approaches; and through its policy and institutional impact beyond projects that it finances.

While the older institutions have attempted to adapt, their governance remains out of sync with today’s economic and political realities. The new bank’s governance structure has yet to be worked out, but it promises to be more consistent with contemporary best practices. Most important, the New Development Bank will give greater voice to the perspectives and interests of those in developing countries and emerging markets.

As with the outdated governance arrangements, conceptions of development that informed the existing multilateral institutions’ mandates are markedly different from modern development thinking. For example, there was no awareness of the challenge posed by climate change, and that all countries (including those in the developing world) must reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions and adapt to changes that will be particularly adverse to poor countries. Likewise, there was no comprehension of the innovation and opportunities entailed in pursuing more sustainable paths of inclusive economic growth.

Of course, the World Bank and the regional development banks now recognize such imperatives, and the New Development Bank should not relieve the developed countries of their responsibilities. But, with the shortfall of assistance from developed to developing countries, the new bank can provide essential help to developing countries and emerging markets as they undertake smarter and more sustainable infrastructure investment for growth and poverty reduction. Given the need to act quickly – and given the slowness with which the developed world has been responding – this new institution is all the more welcome.

The new bank can make a major contribution to the global economy’s health by facilitating the transition to new poles of growth and demand, helping to rebalance global savings and investments, and channeling excess liquidity to productive use. It will not only be a driver for sustainable growth in the developing and emerging world, but will also foster reform in the existing multilateral financial institutions – changes from which all of us, in the developed and developing world alike, will benefit.

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