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亚洲市场—投机风潮在衰退
今日汇评
美元在亚洲市场走势低迷，源于投资者对于风险的厌恶开始重新弥散于交易市场。欧元对美元，跌落到1.5753，随后，折回到1.5700的支撑点。美元对日元，从107.33的高位下落至106.83。市场上投机风潮在衰退，因为近期的一个研究报告指出，美国抵押贷款机构和联邦国家抵押协会将需要吸收市场上流通的额外资金，这些资金直接导致了美国和亚洲股市的熊市行情，2年来的生产量降低了8bps。利差交易也感受到了此种投资心理转变的影响，欧元对日元，从168.61直线下降到167.83，澳元对日元的交易也下降到101.90。也许是来自于昨天开幕的G8峰会（领导人不断的施加压力，要求在食品和能源行业的成本上采取行动），或者是对于全球经济衰退的反应，基于任何一个因素，原油价格跌落至 $141.64bbl。黄金价格低开，08年8月的合同价格下跌了$4.80 至$928.80。银价下跌了-45.0 ¢ ，收盘于$17.920/oz。
亚洲市场早市开盘走低，市场的担忧是，次贷危机将继续扩大影响，通货膨胀也将进一步刺激全球经济的衰退。日本Inpex Holdings指数下跌，源于能源板块的低迷走势。Kookmin银行，韩国最大的银行，几乎是连续4个月大跌。G8峰会指出，全球经济面临不确定性和衰退的风险，主要的诱因是国家油价的疯涨。他们暗示，希望中国人民币的升值能够缓解国际金融市场的不均衡。至今仍没有关于外汇交易市场的评论。
昨天，制作业和工业出口量双双走低，大大打破了人民的预期，这一消息继续对英镑的走势产生不利影响。在亚洲市场，BCC季度经济调查报告突出显示了经济的衰退和价格的暴涨。
我们可以看到英国各个行业和部门的显著衰退的迹象（甚至比我们预想的要迅速得多），而这又将最终给英国央行带来两难的抉择。据英国商会预计，经济将极有可能进入衰退期，因为第二季度的产品与服务的销售锐减。BCC指数跌至1992年以来的最低点，投资市场的衰败和通胀率的高居不下，直接挫伤了投资者的信心。DCLG住房价格指数从另一个角度也在显示经济的衰退。我们预期，货币政策委员会(MPC)在本周将利率稳定在 5.00%的水平。
欧元兑美元- 观望现在的1.5611 (昨天的最低点)，将可能继续熊市交易，下跌至至少 1.5535. 如果这一点被突破, 1.5460 和1.5300将处于十分危险的境地. 看多的话, 1.5754-1.5778是1.5910前方的重要阻力位. 假如能够顺利突破的话，将可能全力上攻至1.6020。
美元兑日元- 104.99是坚实的阻力位. 如果被突破的话, 将直接冲击下一个阻力位104.40, 103.87和102.57-73. 之后的话可能全面下跌至100.03. 乐观的话, 我们将看到反弹的趋势，全力试探108.60的高点, 只要107.75被清除.。 108.60之后,将试探110.10 、112.10.
英镑兑美元 – 看空的压力越来越大. 观望今天的1.9649 ，如果持续下跌，降至1.9580-85 ，如果这点被清除，将步入1.9400 区域. 看多的话, 1.9800 和 1.9850仍然是2.0000-2.0030之前的重要阻力位。
Asian Session - Risk Aversion Increases
Market Brief
The Usd weakened in Asian session as risk aversion crept back into the market. EurUsd jumped to 1.5753 before retracing to 1.5700 support while UsdJpy fell from the 107.33 highs to 106.83. Risk appetite declined as a research report arguing that Freddie and Fannie would need additional capital, circulated in the market sending US and Asian stocks down and 2 year yields fell by 8bps. Carry trades also felt the effect of the sentiment shift with EurJpy falling sharply to 167.83 from 168.61 and AudJpy trading down to 101.90. Whether its pressure from the G8 summit which began yesterday (leaders have continuously stressed the need for action on food & energy cost) or reaction to deteriorating global growth but either way crude closed down to $141.64bbl. Gold closed lower; the most active Aug '08 contract down $4.80 to $928.80. Sep '08 silver -45.0 ¢ at $17.920/oz.
Asian markets trading down this morning amid concerns that the credit market losses will widen and inflation will further slowdown the global economic growth. Japan's Inpex Holdings declined driven by weakness in the energy sector. Kookmin Bank, South Korea's largest, tumbled the most in almost four months following a broker downgrade. G8 has stated that the global economy faces uncertainty and downside risks mainly posed by the sharp rise in oil prices. It also made a small indication that they wanted to see the Chinese Yuan appreciate to help reduce global financial imbalances. No statement on FX so far.
Yesterday dreadful manufacturing and industrial output which both fell well below expectations should continue to weigh on the Gbp. And in Asian session BCC Quarterly Economic Survey highlighted slowing economic activity and rising price pressures. We are now seeing significant deterioration in multiple UK sectors (and at a faster pace then anticipated) which will eventually create a significant dilemma for the BoE. According to the British Chamber of Commerce the economy looks very likely to fall into recession as sales of services and manufactured goods fell sharply in the second quarter. The BCC Index fell to its lowest number since 1992 as a serious slowdown in the property market and rising inflation has seen a dramatic decline in confidence.While Nationwide and DCLG housing prices should show additional weakness we are expecting the MPC to hold at 5.00% this week.
12.00gmt - Fed’s Bernanke Speaks (but no Q&A)
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