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亚洲市场——外汇市场寻求新的蛛丝马迹
今日汇评
在亚洲市场，美元兑换其它主要货币的汇率升值。原因是市场投机增多，而八国领导人峰会将重点讨论飙升的油价问题。周四卖空之后，欧元对美元的汇率持续下滑，跌至1.5623（因为此前有谣言说德国国债将被赎回而不是用于重新投资），欧元对日元的汇率升至107.52（这是七日来的新高）。
从表面看来，英国经济发展状况稳定，但是自从市场开始对此表示怀疑，英镑对美元的汇率从1.9820 跌至1.9722。新抛售日元进行的套利交易和对风险规避程度的降低导致欧元对日元的汇率上涨至168.07，而澳元对日圆的汇率则达到103.12。近日来，油价和美元之间紧密的联系有所松缓，wti保持在143.50bll的价格水平，而美元表现出牛市行情。美国的投资人在度过了一个漫长的周末之后，已经想出了应对Trichet关于欧洲央行增加存款利率的讲话和上周四美国工资调查报告的措施。
尽管美元强势，贸易依旧不甚景气，投资者们通过调查美国经济发展状况的蛛丝马迹来判断美联储在近期内是否会提高银行存款利率。许多投资人认为不久美联储的官员将对此给予评论，特别是美联储主席Bernanke将在本周内发表讲话声援美元。
今日上午，亚洲市场交易活跃。虽然市场预期日经指数会连续跌破12个交易日，但是实际上日经指数在上午下跌0.5%之后，从下午开始上升1.0%，套利者从中获利。银行和出口贸易是受欢迎的选择。但是贸易额却较低，因为美国市场在7月4日休市一天，无法为投资者指明方向。中国的银行业和航空业推动香港和上海的市场交易攀升，但是银行业却使悉尼的市场交易下降，因为投资人关注全球信贷市场的情况。与金属价格相似的是，在悉尼市场交易中矿产价格也下降了。
BoJ官员Shirakawa发表声明，全球通货膨胀的风险在持续上升，而由于高涨的能源和商品价格，日本的经济发展缓慢。一份与BoJs增长预期相似的文件对本周的预测进行了驳斥。
今天市场主要关注的是香港和工业产品。六月CIPS/RBS的报告显示制造业产出平衡，然而这一平衡突然被打破，这说明制造业产品面临崩溃。在强大的压力之下，我们已经售出英镑，并且预期英镑对美元的汇率将继续下跌（汇率震荡）到1.9300。
欧元兑美元汇率——
我们观察到现在欧元对美元的汇率是1.5628，在另一个熊市行情阶段，汇率至少下跌至1.5535。如果达到该点，则汇率有可能到达1.5460和1.5300。在上行区域，1.5728 和1.5778 将成为主要阻力点，随后是1.5910 。
美元兑日元汇率
美元对日元的汇率反弹，如果支撑点是104.99，那么汇率很可能持续走低到达下一个支撑面104.40, 103.87 和102.57-73。在后者下方，我们认为汇率将进一步降低到100.03。如果我们的预测是正确的，那么将会出现较大的反弹，一旦107.67被重置，我们会试探108.60。在108.60上方，我们将试探110.10和112.10。
英镑兑美元的汇率——
支撑面的压力在增加。我们观察到现在英镑对美元的汇率是1.9705-15，随后是 1.9625-40，如果跌到该点以下，则汇率有可能到达1.5460和1.5300。在上行区域，为了缓解压力，汇率必须重新回到1.9849 之上和1.9916-48之上。这样汇率就可能达到2.0008和2.0030。
Asian Session - FX Markets Seaching for Clues
Market Brief
Usd is stronger against every major currency in the Asian session as speculation grows that the G8 meeting will focus on record high oil prices. EurUsd continued to decline from Thursdays sell-off, sliding to 1.5623 (on rumors that German bonds were to be redeemed rather then re-invested) while UsdJpy traded to 107.52 (7 day high). GbpUsd dropped from 1.9820 to 1.9722 as the market began to once again question the stability of the UK underlying economy. Carry trades gained on renewed Jpy selling and declining risk aversion, pushing EurJpy to 168.07 and AudJpy 103.12. The tight correlation between oil & Usd has lessened slightly in recent day with wti stable around the 143.50bll level while the Usd has taken a bullish tone. After the long weekend in the States, investors have been able to take stock and decide how to react to the Trichet statement that followed the ECB raising rates and the U.S. payroll numbers last Thursday.
Trading was still subdued despite the Usd strength with investors looking for more clues on the U.S. economic situation and to see if the Federal Reserve will be in a position to raise interest rates any time soon. Many will look towards comments from Fed officials over the coming days and in particular to Chairman Bernanke who may give some support to the Dollar during the week ahead.
Asian markets mostly trading higher this morning. Bargain hunters have taken the Nikkei from a 0.5% morning loss to a 1.0% afternoon gain as the market hopes to break its streak of 12 consecutive declines. Banks and exporters were popular choices. But, volumes were thin since the US was closed 4-Jul and could therefore not provide any direction. Chinese banks and airlines led Hong Kong and Shanghai up, but banks led a fall in Sydney over concerns about global credit markets. Also, miners and metals fell in Sydney.
BoJ Governor Shirakawa spoke saying said that global inflationary risks were growing and Japan's economy was slowing due to high energy and commodity prices. A very familiar script and preparing the market for the BoJs growth forecast downgrade expected this week.
A light calendar today will have the markets focused on the UKs Industrial production. The abrupt decline in the output balance of the June CIPS/RBS report on manufacturing suggests that output will soon be collapsing. We have already seen the Gbp come under significant selling pressure and expected the GbpUsd to continued to trade down (in choppy trading) to the 1.9300 mid term.
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