亚洲市场——外汇交易便捷
今日汇评
在亚洲市场，外汇交易相对稳定，因为与在本周开始时美国交易商的举措相比，昨天的市场的便捷程度有更强的推动能力。欧元对美元的汇率试探性地爬升到交易者预期的1.5700而美元对日元汇率反弹至106.60 / 106.80。套利交易在某些程度上促使当日的欧元对日元的汇率从167.25 上升到167.84，而由于10d-ma的支持，澳元对日元的汇率重新上扬到102.75。因为日程变得轻松，而且7月4日是国定假期，我们预计交易量将减少。
石油价格在和迪拜的交易中表现稳定，保持在145.13bll，而黄金价格小幅下跌到934.35oz。美国股票市场对消极的收入数据表现得无可奈何，闭市的时候有所上升。但是，今日亚洲市场不甚景气，只有上证指数上升了1.95%。欧洲股指期货的交易量在开市前就较大。
我们昨天已经预测了ECB会将利率提高25bp到4.25%，而在他们在随后的记者招待会上却宣布了比我们预期的更加稳健的政策。实际上，在记者提问部分，Trichet说：“我对未来利率的决定没有偏好。”在此之前，他没有提到过这一观点，而且这个观点清楚地说明现在ECB的政策是中立的。关于这一点，我们认为ECB在9月会适度地提高利率，主要是因为8月欧元区的预期通胀率是4.1%。令人担忧的数据会使Trichet夜不成眠，特别是当他考虑到利率的上涨已经使经济下滑的步伐加快的时候。我们不认为欧元对美元的汇率有任何上升的迹象，除非两国的经济数据能清楚地反映货币政策的走向。
然而我们将看到港币和英镑将会卖出。虽然市场对通胀率高于经济增长速度的重新关注导致近期英镑的大量交易，但是我们预期在国内经济迅速下滑的情况下，最终市场交易情况会发生转变。我们预计汇率会发生较大波动，并在中期回到1.9300 lvls。
昨天瑞士的Riks银行将利率提高25bp到4.50%，紧随Norges银行之后，这一举措已为市场所预期。近期消费者物价指数上涨率攀升到4.0%，而预期利率却与之不符。除此而外，银行业已告知市场将面临两次加息已降低经济增长的速度和减少通货膨胀的压力。
在澳大利亚，五月份的贸易赤字达9.65亿美元。但是，和4月份10亿美元的贸易赤字相比，已经有了很大的转变。原因是商品合约的价格进一步提高。
欧元兑美元——
熊市行情已经结束，并且进入牛市。在这种情况下，我预测未来市场的走向。如果跌破支撑点1.5682，我们将测试点1.5628, 1.5535-40和1.5463-70，这些变化都将反作用于熊市行情。但是，重置于点1.5820会将上方的1.5910 和1.6020-33置与风险之中，并进一步提高支撑点位。
美元兑日元——
美元对日元的汇率反弹，如果支撑点是104.99，那么汇率很可能持续走低到达下一个支撑面104.40, 103.87 和102.57-73。在后者下方，我们认为汇率将进一步降低到100.03。在上行区域，第一阻力点是107.22，随后是106.47和108.59-62。支撑点将重置到107.67 和108.59-62。牛市行情只能再次出现在后者上方。
英镑兑美元——
我们观察到现在的英镑兑美元汇率是2.0008和2.0030-50。如果我们放弃后者，那么利率可能升至2.0140和2.0200。支撑点是1.9800，随后是1.9754和1.9705-15。如果重置，我们将试探1.9585-90。
Asian Session - FX Trading Subdued
Market Brief
FX markets were relatively stable in Asian session as yesterday’s volatility seem to have driven more then just the US participant to start their weekend early. EurUsd climbed tentatively back above the psychological 1.5700 level while UsdJpy bounced around 106.60 / 106.80 levels. Carry trades picked up a slight intraday upwards trend with EurJpy moving from 167.25 to 167.84 and AudJpy found support on the 10d-ma, rallying to 102.75. With a light calendar and the US 4th of July holiday we would expect trading to be subdued.
Oil prices were stable with Dubai trading at 145.13bll while gold slipped slightly to 934.35oz. US stock markets for the most part were able to shrug off the negative payroll data and close slightly higher however Asian markets were lower with only the Shanghai Composite trading up 1.95% higher today. European index futures are trading higher before the open US markets are closed.
As we had expected the ECB raised rates by 25bp to 4.25% yesterday while the accompanying press conference was more dovish then we had anticipated. In fact during the Q&A portion, Trichet said, “I have no bias” in regards to future rate decisions. A comment he has never uttered before and clearly illustrates that the ECB now has a neutral bias. At this point we have a slight bias towards an additional hike in September due primary to Euro zone inflation which is expect to print at 4.1% for August. A large worrying figure and one that will provide Trichet with many sleepless nights, especially considering growth has now increased the pace of downwards deterioration. We don’t expect EurUsd to pick up any noticeable trend until data from both countries starts giving us real signals as to the direction of monetary policy.
We will however be watching the UK and Gbp for selling opportunities. While the recent trading pattern of Gbp strength has been based on the markets renewed focus on inflation over growth we expect given the rapid decline of the domestic economy an eventual shift will occur. We expect a choppy move back to the 1.9300 lvls mid term.
Yesterday Sweden’s Riksbank hiked rates 25bp to 4.50%, following the lead of the Norges Bank in a move that was widely expected. CPI inflation has recently jumped to 4.0% and rate expectations have followed suit putting the offensive. In addition, the bank signaled that the market could see two more rate hikes in order to slow the economy and contain inflation pressures.
In Australia trade deficit printed at $965m in May in line with expectations. However, there were large revisions of around $1.0bn to April, as higher contract prices for commodities were passed through.
10:00gmt - ECB's Trichet speaks
10:00gmt - ECB's Gonzales-Paramo speaks
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