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亚洲市场-欧洲央行的市场眼
今日汇评
美元在亚洲市场表现十分平稳，市场都在等待欧洲央行今天有关利率的政策决定。欧元对美元，保持在1.5870的水平，美元对日元，强力保持在106.00之上。我们预计，欧洲央行将提高利率到4.25%。美国市场的低迷数据描述了美国经济混乱的画面。我们预计欧元对美元将在近期第3次尝试冲击1.6000。
市场广泛预期，欧洲央行将会在今天提高利率，然而在之后的发布会上可能会有不确定的情形出现。Trichets可能还会保持强硬态度的论调，发表利率提高不一定意味着经济上升的近期评论，我们可以预见欧元的再次崛起。此种预测是建立在这样的逻辑推理过程中，欧洲央行实行银根紧缩来避免市场冲击，是没有任何意义的。他也不得不承认，近期的市场活动和调查数据所带来的消极影响。在接下来的12个月里，市场上价格又涨了2个25bp，利率下调的空间很大。
在美国，国外净要素支付水平非常危险。根据ADP昨天发布的调查报告，薪水水平有个极大程度的下降。ADP调查报告一直对经济大势持乐观态度，这次的消极数据充分说明市场极有可能有下跌100,000的巨大风险。ADP的强拍信息也揭示了劳动力市场的其他数据：最初的失业浪潮在持续升温，作为招聘行业的晴雨表，6月份 ISM制作业调查的雇佣指数确实也在走低。
欧元兑美元-走势进程至少要回到 1.6020-33 。另外一个可能性是，形成一个巨大的三角，如果这样的话，大牛上扬的可能性非常大。（目标是1.6507，然而，我们能够看到预想实现的强劲的趋势）看空的话，极有可能到达1.5720. 之后的话，我将继续看空，至于 1.5460-70 ，甚至低至1.5285-1.5203.
美元兑日元- 市场在进行激烈的辩论，预计从此位有大的反弹，主力支撑点在104.99. 如果这点被攻下，汇率将会继续下探至下一个支撑点104.40, 103.87 和102.57- 73. 在上述点位之后，将有可能大幅下探至 100.03. 看多的话, 第一个阻力位在107.22.之前的106.78。更有甚者，可能上扬至107.67和108.59-62.
英镑兑美元- 现在正守在2.0008 和 2.0030-50. 如果后者点位被攻陷, 之后将可能直冲2.0140 和2.0200. 看空的话, 1.9845是在1.9800 and 1.9705- 15之前的阻力. 如果这点被清除，将继续试探1.9585-90. 每天垂死挣扎的投资者们在等待汇率的反转。
Asian Session - Markets Eye ECB
Market Brief
Usd was stable in the Asian session as the market awaits today's ECB rate decision. EurUsd traded around the 1.5870 level while UsdJpy was able to hold above 106.00. We are expecting the ECB to raise rates to 4.25% in the European session while the US data should continue to paint an unsettling picture of the US domestic economy. Should our base scenario play out we expect the EurUsd to make a third attempt at the 1.6000 in the near term.
It's widely expected that the ECB will hike rates today (which was fully priced into the market) but the uncertainly will play out in the subsequent press conference. Should Trichet's tone continue to be hawkish and if he steers clear of recent comments that a rate hike would not necessary mean a string of moves upwards we should see gains in the Eur. This expectation is based on the logical conclusion that it would make little sense for the ECB to tighten rates just to dilute the impact.
In the US NFP will be critical. The ADP survey released yesterday suggests we could see a significant drop in today's payroll data. According to the usually optimistic ADP survey there is a downside risk to our already below-consensus forecast of a 100,000 drop. In addition, initial jobless claims are still moving north and such as the employment index in recent ISM manufacturing survey, are moving south. |
