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亚洲市场——日本央行保持利率不变、日元增值
今日汇评
在亚洲市场，美元普遍走弱，与此同时，交易者对此已经作了充分的准备，市场上投资者对风险又重新持有厌恶的态度。欧元对美元的汇率在短期下降之后，又从1.5882 攀升到1.5954，而澳元对美元的汇率轻而易举地突破0.9737，支撑点在当日就达到0.9772这一新高。美元对日元的汇率下滑至105.70，这是因为信用市场不景气、投资者的风险偏好减少而且为利差交易而融资的日元被卖空。
日本央行一直同意保持利率为0.50%。他们还对半年的经济增长进行向下修正，同时提高对消费者物价指数的预期。主要决议与通货膨胀息息相关，他们提出“如果经济下滑的风险降低，那么高通货膨胀率和高物价的风险将会加剧，因为长久以来，货币政策过于宽松。”这暗示了日本央行担心它的宽松的货币政策可能最终导致通货膨胀，希望控制消费者物价指数，使之恢复到适当的范围内。我们认为这番评论只能在短期内使日元利好，因为市场仍面临各种不同的情况和风险。
在新西兰，通货膨胀率高于预期，食品和能源的价格增长最快，季度增长率1.6%，而这一数值预期只有1.4%，年增长率4.0%，高于预期3.8%。以上数据使新西兰储备银行很难对七月甚至八月的利率削减做出理性的决定。
在澳大利亚，今日澳洲联储的会议决定采取温和稳健的政策。会议的主要决议是“提高各种不同因素的比重，董事会认为当前的货币政策仍然是合适的”。事实上，澳洲联储已经认识到国内经济明显衰退，他们表示“消费者支出已经明显放缓，对住房和企业的信贷也大幅减少。有调查表明在过去数月中，市场信心下降，资产价格也减少了。”
在英国市场，消费者物价指数的年增长率从3.3%提高到3.6%，这对英镑的价格有所支持。除此而外，央行将使用六月份生产者物价指数为下一轮政策做出决定。我们认为，因为通货膨胀率还没有达到顶点，至少在未来数月内边际消费者倾向不会发生变化。
在欧洲大陆，德国经济研究所将对贸易进行关注。我们预计指数将再次下滑，从-56.0达到-52.6，可能会达到一个新低-62.0。虽然考虑到GDP预期值，这一数据不是十分准确，但是我们不认为这一悲观的数据会发生变化。
欧元兑美元汇率—
欧元对美元的汇率升高到1.5972，并可能会重置，达到更高点1.6020。但是从目前的趋势看来，我仍然对此持谨慎态度，并且认为涨幅会回落。第一支撑点重置，达到1.5759 然后是1.5692。点位暂时会低于1.5635和主要支撑点1.5611。在此下方，下一个支撑点如果不是1.5300，则有可能是1.5460-68。
美元兑日元汇率—
当前美元对日元的汇率是107.75，可能会回到108.60。如果达到该点，汇率可能会继续上升至110.13和112.10。在下行区域，第一支撑点是105.66，接着主要支撑点是104.99。随后会出现熊市行情，因为双顶至少结束于102.23。
英镑兑美元汇率—
在上行区域，主要支撑点仍然是2.0008-2.0030，再次试探2.0183-2.0200。如果以较高的汇率成交，熊市行情将结束。在支撑面，第一支撑点和次要支撑点在1.9926，然后是1.9814, 1.9712-40 和1.9666。如果后者重置，将继续升高到1.9585, 1.9470-80, 1.9400 和1.9360。
Asian Session - BoJ Holds & Jpy Gains
Market Brief
The Usd was broadly weaker in Asian sessions causing traders to brace themselves for a data heavy day as risk aversion moved back into the market. EurUsd after a short retreat, trended upwards from 1.5882 to 1.5954 while AudUsd broke easily thru 0.9737 intraday resistance heading to 0.9772 new highs. UsdJpy slipped to 105.70 as concerns over credit market losses damped risk appetite. As expected, Jpy funded carry trades were also sold off. Worries in credit markets are currently weighing on equity markets with Shanghai’s down 3.43% and DAX falling 1.77% at the open (US futures are lower across the board). Precious metals continue to surge forward with gold trading to 973.78 and silver 19.13. And given the current state of uncertainty VIX has climbed to 28.48 and 1month implied Vols have followed.
In a unanimous vote the BoJ held rates at 0.50% as expected. In addition, their half year update revised growth downwards while raising the CPI forecast. Perhaps the key take away, was the unique wording surrounding inflation which stated "in the case that downside risk to the economy eases, risks to higher fluctuations in the economy and prices may be intensified due to prolonged easy monetary conditions". This hints that the BoJ is concerned that its loose monetary policy might actually be aiding to inflation and that they therefore, are willing to tighten should CPI move above their comfort zone. We expect that this comment will only benefit Jpy in the short term as markets are still trading on yield differentials and risk appetite.
In New Zealand inflation moves higher than expected, with food and energy by far the largest contributors. Headline inflation printed strong at q/q 1.6% vs. 1.4% exp, y/y 4.0% vs. 3.8% exp. Given these elevated figures it would be difficult for the RBNZ to rationalize a rate cut in July and even puts Sept cuts in jeopardy.
In Australia the RBA minutes released today were mildly dovish. The Key takeaway for the minutes were "weighing up the various factors, the Board judged that the current stance of monetary policy remained appropriate". The RBA recognized that the economy was clearly weakening stating "Consumer spending had slowed significantly and there had been a marked decline in the growth of credit to both households and businesses. Surveys indicated that confidence had fallen further over the past month and asset prices were weakening".
In the UK markets, we will be watching CPI data which is likely to rise from 3.3% to 3.6% y/y and give the Gbp some support. In addition with signs of acceleration in June PPI the BoE will be gauging second round effects into core. In our view with inflation far from peaking, the MPC should be on hold for the next few months at least.
On the continent, German ZEW will have trades attention. We are expecting another decline to -56.0 from -52.6…getting precariously close to all time recession lows of -62.0. While this index is not very accurate in regards to predicating GDP we don’t expect the market to look kindly on the gloomy data.
14.00gmt - Fed’s Bernanke Testifies to Senate on Economy
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