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亚洲市场- Paulson发布援助计划
今日汇评
美元在亚洲市场持续面临巨大的抛售压力，源于这个周末人们对于美元的熊市心态继续蔓延。欧元对美元，在开盘时大涨，迅速升至1.5971。然而，英镑对美元，在开盘走势不错，但没能坚持住上升的大好势头，最终从1.9914 跌至1.9823。日用品流通基本上随着澳元对美元的汇率运行，在0.9670和0.9711之间波动。美元对加拿大元，从1.0070 小幅上扬至 1.0118。日元的走弱，促进了日元利差交易的良好表现。澳元对日元，上涨至103.21，土耳其新里拉对日元，则收盘于87.624.。
Paulson发布消息称，为了恢复人们对于美国抵押贷款机构和联邦国家抵押协会的信心，美国联邦政府将直接购买或者筹措资金来消化12万亿美国抵押额度的一半。Paulson特别指出，将会放宽对于GSE的信用额度，在获得国会的批准之后，将购买GSE的资产，美联储将直接指导GSE的组织架构改革特别是对于今后的资金要求。市场对于这个利好消息还在消化阶段，美国政府政策的改变正在朝着主动救援的方向，这将大大帮助股票市场的回升以及刺激人们对于风险性投资的兴趣。
在新西兰，令人沮丧的零售业数据被公布，月增长率只有-1.2%，相比于上个与的0.1% 。
然而汽车行业却有些增长，数据是0.7% ，相比于上月的0.5%（极有可能是源于食品价格的通胀）。暴涨的能源价格、经济衰退的预期、劳动力市场的低迷，正在毁灭消费者的信心，而且这样的衰退趋势还将持续一段时间，不知何时是尽头。今天的不容乐观的经济增长数据，让我们再次将注意力集中在了明天的CPI数据的出炉，这将直接决定新西兰央行是否会削减利率。
今天的市场走势平平，投资者都在观望英国6月份的生产品价格的出炉。很有趣的是，我们想看看商业活动的低迷是否会阻止生产者转嫁生产成本压力的能力。能源价格的增长持续升温，而且将保持在一定的时期内。很有可能生产者价格将被转嫁到消费者身上。
欧元兑美元 -
现在是位于1.5972的高位，将继续进攻更高点1.6020. 然而我仍然持谨慎态度。 第一个支撑点在1.5692之前的1.5759 。之后有可能下探至1.5635 和1.5611, 这将是随后的主要阻力点. 在这之后，1.5460-68将处于高度危险的状态, 如果被突破，将继续下探至1.5300。
美元兑日元-
我们观望从现在的107.75回升至108.60. 如果成功了，将有可能继续上探110.13 和112.10。看空的话， 第一个支撑点在 105.66，在104.99之后. 如果后点被攻陷，将持续熊市走势。
英镑兑美元 -
看多的话, 2.0008-2.0030仍然是进攻2.0183-2.0200的主要阻力区域. 这个区域被攻陷的话，汇率将持续走高，看空的话, 1.9712-40是 1.9666之前的阻力. 后者被攻陷后，将继续下探至1.9585, 1.9470-80, 1.9400 和1.9360。
Asian Session - Paulson to the Resue
Market Brief
The Usd continued to come under significant selling pressure in Asian session as the bearish dollar sentiment carried over the weekend. EurUsd gapped at the open, quickly trading to 1.5971, however Gbp/Usd which rallied at the open was unable to sustain the upwards momentum and traded lower from 1.9914 to 1.9823. Commodity currencies traded basically sideways with Aud/Usd jumping between 0.9670 to 0.9711 and Usd/Cad moving slightly upward from 1.0070 to 1.0118. Jpy fueled carry trades performed slightly better as the Jpy had a weak tone. Aud/Jpy traded up to 103.21 and Try/Jpy moved to 87.624.
In a massive move to restore the markets confidence in Fannie and Freddie Trsy Sec. Paulson said that the US Federal government would buy or finance almost half of the $12 trillion of U.S mortgage market. Specifically, Pauslon stated, he would ask the Fed to increase credit lines extended to GSEs, seek Congressional approval to buy equity in the GSE's and expand the Feds role in defining the regulatory structure for the GSEs (specifically their future capital requirements). While the markets are still digesting the statement, a change of policy towards clear “bailout” by the government should help the equity market, risk appetite andUsd intraday
The BoJ began is two day monetary policy meeting today and are expect to hold rates at 0.50%.
New Zealand reported a dismal retail sales figure (m/m) at -1.2% vs. -0.1% exp. but grew Ex Autos 0.7% vs. 0.5% exp (likely lifted by food price inflation). Clearly higher energy cost, deteriorating economic expectations and weak labor market has wrecked consumer confidence and this downward trend doesn’t seem to be ending near term. Today’s poor growth figure will now place the emphasis on tomorrow CPI figure as a key factor to when the RBNZ begins cutting rates. Should the figure come in softer than the q/q 1.4% expected reading, we could see a decline unwinding of long NZD positions.
In a light calendar day markets will be watching UK Junes producer prices. It will be interesting to see if the decline in business activity has halted producer’s ability to pass on their increased costs. We don’t think so however, especially given the fact that energy has continued to move up and sustained these elevated levels for an extended period of time. Most likely, producers price increases are being pass to the consumer which the MPC won’t be happy about.
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