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亚洲市场——日本消费者信心指数大跌
今日汇评
在亚洲市场，美元在纽约的交易卖空，随后价格表现出波动。欧元对美元的汇率在1.5760和1.5800之间的支撑点成交，美元对日元的汇率小幅上涨，从106.90到达107.28。有关联邦国民抵押贷款公司和联邦住房抵押贷款公司的谣言继续在市场上混淆视听，从而使人们的风险偏好程度降低，产权投资市场卖空。尽管保尔森和伯南克反复强调他们对市场已经充分理解，但是这番言论却不很可靠。
在日本，消费者信心指数创新低，这是与国内的经济状况、通货膨胀率以及就业率息息相关的。在六月，消费者信心指数下滑至32.6（这是从去年12月1日以来的最低点），而该指数在五月是33.9。除此而外，到目前为止，消费者需求指数也下跌了3.2%。没有日本消费者的支持，2008年日本经济的衰退速度就不可能减缓。我们预期，日元坚挺需要依赖于市场对风险的厌恶程度，而不是对货币支持的经济基础。
虽然MPC昨日已经将利率上升5.00%，但是英镑仍然面临严峻的考验。通货膨胀是一个长期地削弱国内经济情况的因素，尤其是在房地产市场，然而我们认为下一次央行调整利率时将会采取降息政策，这具有极大的可能性。与此同时，不断攀升的通货膨胀率也迫使英国中央银行保持警觉，因为他们担心国内经济陷入衰退，所以才提高利率。
在美国，由密歇根大学调查研究得出的消费者信心指数将在今天公布。虽然美国的房价下跌、能源价格走低、失业率上升，但是这一切不值得人们兴奋，因为消费者信心指数几乎不可能上升。而且美国的贸易赤字预计将进一步扩大，这是由于高涨的能源价格开始产生深远的影响。这一轮美国的经济衰退，将从今日美元价格变化开始。
Asian Session - Japans Consumer Confidence Wanes
Market Brief
The Usd was range bound in Asian Session after being sold-off in NY trading. EurUsd traded between 1.5760 - 1.5800 resistance while UsdJpy found slightly more direction trending upwards from 106.90 to 107.28. Rumors around Fannie & Freddie continue to distract the markets with risk appetite shaky and equity markets falling. While Paulson and Bernanke reiterated views that they were adequately capitalized the market are not so easily convinced.
In Japan consumer confidence dropped to a new record low as concerns over the domestic economy, inflation & employment all weighing on sentiment. The index slid to 32.6 in June (lowest level since Dec 01) from 33.9 in May. In addition, personal demand indicators for consumption include a -3.2% fall. Without support from the Japanese consumer, there is little chance we shall see the current pace of domestic deterioration slow in 2008. And expect the Jpy to depend on bouts of risk aversion rather then underlying fundamental for currency support.
The Gbp continues to struggle despite the MPC holding rates steady at 5.00% yesterday. The rational is that while inflation is a persistent problem, weakening domestic data, highlighted by the housing sector, suggest that there is a higher probability that next rate move will be down. While rising inflation will keep the BoE vigilant near term the fear of sliding into a full recession will keep the Bank for hiking and pressure on the Gbp.
In the US, University of Michigan’s consumer confidence index will be released today. There has not been much to be positive about, with falling home prices, surging energy costs and unemployment rising we expect there is little chance that the index will improve. In addition, the US trade deficit is expected to widen as the higher energy cost start to have a profound effect. This round of gloomy economic data, on this light calendar week should weigh on the Usd today.
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