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亚洲市场——美元保持稳定
今日汇评
在亚洲市场，美元保持稳定，这是由于没有确切的消息影响美元的增值或者贬值。欧元对美元的汇率在1.5700 - 1.5750之间成交，而美元对日元的汇率则从107.50下滑到106.90。日元的大量买入使得选择性利差交易大量溢出，英镑对日元的汇率受到最大的冲击，从212.30跌至211.40。由于早期的卖出，澳元对日元的汇率勉强回复到102.70。因为美国股票市场大跌，原油价格在升至$138每桶后又有所回落，以$136.50每桶成交。收盘时，黄金交易获利颇丰，某些地区政局紧张促使许多投资者将金属作为安全的投资工具。08年八月的远期合同涨幅最明显，上涨$5.30达到$928.60。08年九月的银价上升+22.0达到$18.175/oz。
华尔街充斥着谣言，有人称投资银行有大量的资产将会减值，这造成华尔街股市下跌超过2%。在惠誉国际评级宣布美林证券公司将降低其银行债务评级之后，该公司的股票价格下跌9%。今日上午，亚洲市场的交易情况复杂，显得漫无目标。债权人在澳洲市场损失惨重，对美国金融板块深感忧虑。但是在市场行情反弹以后，日本和韩国的金融行业背离了震荡的低谷。
澳元行情小幅走弱（这是由于国内日益恶化的经济基础造成的），今日就业指数达到2.95万，高于预期2.5万（先前-1.97万），这一数据对本国货币有所支持。
今日最值得人们关注的是英国中央银行的利率政策。人们普遍预期MPC会将利率控制在5.00%。近一个月以来的经济形势反映出明显的恶化。除此以外，房地产市场提供的数据表明产业部门已经进入衰退期，而消费者将明显削减他们的开销。但是，就这一方面，中央银行的官员依旧认为极有可能是通货膨胀使英国面临技术性的衰退。统计数据反映英国央行一直有削减利率的传统，所以我们相信未来利率降低只不过是个时间问题。
欧元兑美元汇率——
我们观察到现在欧元对美元的汇率是1.5611，在另一个熊市行情阶段，汇率至少下跌至1.5535。如果达到该点，则汇率有可能到达1.5460和1.5300。在上行区域，1.5754到1.5778 之间将出现主要阻力点，随后是1.5910。在此之后，我们认为汇率将重新上升到1.6020。
美元兑日元汇率——
我们观察到现在美元对日元的汇率是107.75，随后将上升至108.60。如果达到该点，则汇率将继续上升，到达110.13 和112.10。在下行区域，第一支撑点是106.25，如果汇率跌到该点以下，则有可能达到105.77，在压力下，主要支撑点将是104.99。随后将再现熊市行情。
英镑兑美元汇率—
这是今日关注的焦点，因为牛市行情刚刚结束。今天，我们观察到阻力点从1.9850再次上升，到达2.0008-30，可能会到达2.0050。在该点之上，我不能排除它有继续上升到2.0200， 2.0275 和2.0390的可能。也就是，在压力下，支撑点1.9700将被重置在1.9650，如果达到这点，1.9580-85 和1.9400将成为未来的目标。
17.45gmt - ECB's Trichet 讲话
19.30gmt - Fed's Yellen 讲话
Asian Session - Usd Stable
Market Brief
The Usd was stable in Asian session as a lack of real news provided no real impetus for a directional move. EurUsd traded in a 1.5700 - 1.5750 range while UsdJpy slipped from 107.50 to 106.90. Strong Jpy buying spilled over into select carry trades with GbpJpy the hardest hit dropping from 212.30 to 211.40 while AudJpy was able to rally back from early selling to 102.70. Oil was trading at $136.50 barrel after rising above $138 after a sharp fall in U.S. stocks. Gold closed with strong gains, amid geopolitical tensions thus increasing the metals attractiveness as a safe-haven instrument; the most active Aug '08 contract up $5.30 to $928.60. Sep '08 silver +22.0 ¢ at $18.175/oz.
Wall Street fell over 2% as rumours abound that investment banks still have large write-downs to declare. Merrill Lynch fell over 9% after Fitch Ratings indicated that it may cut the banks debt rating. Merrill's along with other U.S. banks report earnings next week. Asian markets are mostly trading mixed this morning in a directionless session. Lenders lost ground in Australia on worries about the US financial sector, but financials came off early lows in volatile trading in Japan and Korea as the markets reversed early declines. European stocks are coming under significant selling pressure, but so far ,US index futures are still in the positive.
With the Aud looking a little vulnerable ( due to deteriorating fundamentals) today’s better then expected employment figure 29.5k vs. 25k exp (prior -19.7k) help give the currency some support.
The highlight of this data devoid day will be the BoE's interest rate announcement. It is universally expected that the MPC will hold rates at 5.00% due to worrying inflationary pressures. Economic activity in the recent month has shown clear deterioration. In addition, negative data from the housing market, industrial sector that has probably fallen into a recession and a consumer spending ready to decelerate significantly. But the BoE members at this point are still leaning to the inflation side of the story which means a strong chance of a technical recession in the UK. With economic indicators well in the region which historically the BoE would be cutting rates, we believe its just a matter of time before rates come down.
Ex Fed President William Poole in a conference yesterday stated he believes that the government-sponsored mortgage companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, are insolvent. Interesting questions maybe asked of Fed Chairman Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson when they testify on the health of the financial system later today.
17.45gmt - ECB's Trichet speaks
19.30gmt - Fed's Yellen speaks
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