亚洲市场-伊朗导弹测试震惊今日市场
今日汇评
美元在亚洲市场的走势低迷，因为伊朗成功测试了9枚地对地导弹的新闻震惊了整个世界和投资市场。欧元兑美元，有所上升，从1.5660 涨至1.5728，美元对日元，从107.50 滑落至107.02。Lehman的关于美国抵押贷款机构和联邦国家抵押协会的报告；由于导弹测试（事实上新闻的真实性值得怀疑）导致投资者们对于地域安全的担忧和恐慌，青睐风险的投机风潮已经退去。原油价格重振旗鼓，回升至$137.00每桶。美联储主席Ben Bernanke的关于央行将在这个非常时期大力扶持金融市场的保证宣言，也直接推动了美元和股市的走势。Bernankes昨天的发言指出，美联储将致力于国家金融市场的稳定发展，正在考虑采取一些救市措施，比如延长对于主要投资者的便利政策的年底时限。这些消息确实在一定程度上缓解了市场的压力。
由于石油和天然气价格走低，银行类和交通类股票引领美国股市在星期二走势大好。主要指数都几乎收在近期的最好水平。基于华尔街昨晚的出色表现，亚洲市场在早市高开。沪市有所上扬，因为投资者们纷纷投入于吸纳大熊市之后的低价股，大家预计中国政府将会公布政策扶持大盘。美元在亚洲市场走跌，原因在于，据报道称，伊朗测试成功了9枚中长距离的导弹，这些导弹的射程足以到达以色列的领土。美元的强劲走势和下跌的油价，导致了黄金价格的低开，08年8月份的合同价格下跌了$5.50，至 $923.30。08年9月份银价上涨了3.5 ，收于$17.955/oz。
在日本，5月份的机械行业总订单比预期的5.5%的情况要好太多了，达到10.4%。电缆线的订单也有所增长，相比于之前的3.4%，现在达到了5.1%。然而，日本央行（我们银行也是同样的观点）对于未来经济仍持不乐观的预期，基于市场的风险交易，我们预计日元会有短期的收益可能（这是建立短期交易机制的好时机）。
在澳大利亚，消费者的信心指数下跌了-6.7%，比6月份的-2.0%表现得差得多。这个数据出于自1992年以来的最低点，预期也不会有向好的趋势，因为投资者们预计澳洲联储将继续提高利率（继续保持他的中立状态）。澳元对美元，从 0.9549 下跌至 0.9480。我们可以预期由于全球经济衰退引起的日用品的大量甩卖，在我们寻找机会卖出澳元之前，澳洲联储将转向成长性的偏好。
在英国，6月份的消费者信心指数下跌至61，是自2004年以来的最低点。而且，对于劳工市场的预测指数也下跌到了64的新低点。英国央行将有必要在近期推出支持经济增长的政策。
在欧洲市场，投资者们都在观望等待欧盟区第一季度GDP数据和英国外贸数据的新鲜出炉。欧盟区第一季度GDP数据将有利于我们更好的判断由收入水平引领的经济增长，市场在观望重要的价格指数的变动，而不是赤字的变化。
欧元兑美元- 观望现在的1.5611 (昨天的最低点)，将可能继续熊市交易，下跌至至少 1.5535. 如果这一点被突破, 1.5460 和1.5300将处于十分危险的境地. 看多的话, 1.5754-1.5778是1.5910前方的重要阻力位. 假如能够顺利突破的话，将可能全力上攻至1.6020。
美元兑日元 – 观望现在的107.75，可能回冲至108.60. 如果这点被突破, 将可能全力冲击110.13 ，以及之后的112.10. 看空的话, 第一个阻力点位于 106.25 ，如果这点沦陷, 105.77和主要支撑点104.99 将承受巨大压力. 之后将步入漫漫熊市。
英镑兑美元 – 看空的压力越来越大. 观望今天的1.9649 ，如果持续下跌，降至1.9580-85 ，如果这点被清除，将步入1.9400 区域. 看多的话, 1.9800 和 1.9850仍然是2.0000-2.0030之前的重要阻力位。
The Usd was weaker in Asian session as news that Iran had tested 9 surface to surface missiles spooked the market. Eurusd trade up from 1.5660 to 1.5728 while UsdJpy slipped from 107.50 to 107.02. Risk sentiment had already been on shaky ground after the Lehman report on Fannie and Freddie and with rising tensions in the region the missile test (actually facts were a little vague) had traders quick to respond. Crude prices rallied back above the $137.00bll mark. Reassurance from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke that the central bank will keep assisting financial markets in these turbulent times also helped both the Dollar and equities . In Mr. Bernankes prepared remarks yesterday stating that ``The Federal Reserve is strongly committed'' to financial stability and is ``considering several options, including extending the duration of our facilities for primary dealers beyond year-end,'' did help relieve some pressure.
US Stocks were sharply higher Tuesday, led by banks and transports as oil and natural gas prices retreated. The major indexes finished around their best levels for the session. Asian markets are trading higher this morning on the strength of Wall Street's finish overnight. The Shanghai stocks rose as investors plunge on bargain buying amid the steep recent losses and also on speculation that the Chinese government might need to provide support to the market. USD slipped in Asia after it was reported that Iran had test fired nine long and medium range missiles which could possibly strike as far as Israel. Gold closed lower, pressured by a strong dollar and falling crude prices ; the most active Aug '08 contract down $5.50 to $923.30. Sep '08 silver +3.5 ¢ at $17.955/oz.
In Japan machinery orders for May came in much better than expected at 10.4% vs. 5.5% exp while Core orders also strengthened, rising 5.1% vs. 3.4% exp. However while the BoJ expectations (and ours) has continued economic deterioration well entrenched, with markets trading on risk we could see short periods of Jpy strength (but we see those as opportunity to build short Jpy positions).
In Australia consumer sentiment fell -6.7% which was much weaker the Junes -2.0% reading. The number is at its lowest level since 1992 and doesn’t bode well for speculators expecting the RBA to continue higher (and maintain its neutral stance). AudUsd trade down from 0.9549 to 0.9480 on the disappointing data. We will be watching for a sell off in the commodities caused by the global slowdowns and mounting evidence that the RBA will need to shift towards a growth bias before we begin to look for opportunities to sell Aud.
In the UK consumer confidence in June dropped to 61 its lowest since the survey was launched in 2004. In addition the expectations index on the labor market & economy also fell to a new low of 64. Just more evidence that the BoE will need to address the growth side of the story sooner then later.
In European session today, markets will be watching Eurozone GDP (q1 final release) and UK external trade. Euro-zone GDP in Q1will give us a better suggestion of the composition of growth by income while markets will be watching for price change on import prices rather then change in deficit.
|
