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亚洲市场——澳大利亚零售业强劲，澳元看涨
今日汇评
在亚洲市场，美元交易稳定，虽然预期美元会走弱，但是实际情况却比较理想。由于5-ma交易的支持，欧元对美元的汇率从1.5777上升至1.5820，而英镑对美元的汇率没能保持在心理预期值2.0000之上，以1.9930 – 1.9950成交。美元对日元的汇率从105.25重新爬升至106.18，在交易日结束时，又小幅下跌到105.80。因为零售行业的交易情况比预期理想，所以澳元升值，澳元对美元的汇率从0.9521上升至0.9609，澳元对日元的汇率也上升到101.79。
昨天ISM 的调查显示制造业板块看涨，这是个积极的信号，但是通过仔细观察却发现状况并不尽如人意。综合指数上升到50.2，而这一指标的预期值仅48.5（这表示GDP的年增长率是2.0%）。值得注意的是，带动增长的最主要因素是投资者为了满足市场的软性需求而增加的投入。有趣的是，工业部门并没有被日益恶化的房地产行业和不足的消费者信心所拖累。
在澳大利亚，零售行业增长了0.7%，而这一行业的预期增长值仅0.1%。这使得零售业成为2007年7月以来增长势头最强的部门。根据这一点我们能预期零售业的增长将随着股市的清盘而显得独树一帜，因为销售商们已经全力以赴地推动今年以来就很缓慢的增长。除此而外，新设立项目建议减少6.5%，而不是预期的3.0%。毫无疑问，以上数据为澳元看涨提供了有力的支持，正如RBA货币政策所期待的那样，但是我们预测澳大利亚国内的经济环境仍然将继续恶化。
在土耳其，警方逮捕了一群激进分子，并以策划政变的罪名起诉他们。我们希望这只是政治权利斗争扩大的开端，最高法院对是否惩罚AKP进行了听证。有新闻报道说，美元对土耳其里拉的汇率以1.2512成交
在欧洲市场，欧元区的生产价格上涨，这让我们预期，上升的能源价格将会对投资形成压力。强有力的数据为今日欧元对美元的汇率提供了支持。值得注意的是，美元指数正在检验牛市行情，亏损会导致美元继续走弱。
欧元兑美元汇率—
今天，似乎市场上风险上升。我认为欧元对美元汇率的阻力点是1.5844，突破了这一点之后，我认为会出现熊市行情，汇率重新上升到1.6020。支撑点1.5720, 1.5628, 1.5537 和1.5460-68被重置，验证了我对熊市行情的看法。在支撑面的下方，1.5285-1.5303将成为下一个目标。
美元兑日元汇率——
美元对日元的汇率反弹，如果支撑点是104.99，那么汇率很可能持续走低到达下一个支撑面104.40, 103.87 和102.57-73。在后者下方，我们认为汇率将进一步降低到100.03。在上行区域，第一阻力点是107.22，随后是106.47。支撑点将重置到107.67 和108.59-62。牛市行情只能再次出现在后者上方。
英镑兑美元汇率——
我们观察到现在的英镑兑美元汇率是2.0030-50。如果我们放弃后者，那么利率可能升至2.0140和2.0200。支撑点是1.9800，随后是1.9705-15。如果重置，我们将试探1.9585-90。昨天被套牢的形势可能会逆转。
Asian Session - Aud Retail Sales Jump
Market Brief
Usd was stable in the Asian session as better then expected US data kept the greenback bears in check. EurUsd found support from the 5-ma trading from 1.5777 to 1.5820 while GbpUsd was unable to hold above the psychological 2.000 mark, trading between 1.9930 – 1.995. UsdJpy saw a decent rally off 105.25 to 106.18 before slipping slightly to 105.80 as the trading day wore on. Aud crosses were gainers after better then expected retail sales caused AudUsd to jump from 0.9521 to 0.9609 and AudJpy climb to 101.79.
Yesterday's rise in the ISM survey of manufacturing was a positive sign, however the detail's are less than hopeful. The composite index rose to 50.2 vs.. 48.5 exp (which suggest an annual GDP around 2.0%). The concern is that the largest contribution to this number was investors who increased accumulation due to soft demand. It’s interesting to note that the industrial sector has not yet been pulled down by the deteriorating housing sector and weak consumer confidence.
In Australia, retail sales rose 0.7% vs. 0.1%, the strongest biggest monthly rise since July 2007. At this point we expect this figure to be a one off as stock liquidation sales and significant discounting occurred as retailer attempted to improve the slow start to the year. In addition, building approvals fell by -6.5% vs. -3.0%. While positive data will undoubtedly give the Aud temporary support, as the markets speculate on the RBAs monetary policy, we expect the domestic market to continue to deteriorate.
In Turkey, police arrested a number of prominent secularists who were charged with planning a coup. We expect this is only the beginning of an escalation in a political power struggle as the Supreme Court hears arguments on whether to ban the AKP. Usdtry traded up to 1.2512 on the news.
In the European Session Euro zone Producer price inflation is expected to rise as surging energy prices have put pressure on inputs. A strong figure should give the EurUsd a supportive tone today. Note that Usd index is already testing the bull channel base and a break could lead to further weakness.
10.10gmt - ECB’s Tumpell-Gugerell Speaks
16.00gmt - US Trsy Sec pauls speaks
17.00gmt - Fed's Mishkin speaks
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