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今日汇评
在亚洲市场，美元小幅走弱，但是情况比日本银行短观调查报告乐观，从而导致日元的买入。美元兑日元的汇率已连续四天走低，从106.40跌至105.70，但是欧元兑美元的汇率大幅上涨在1.5740 / 70区间波动。随着市场对风险偏好的减少，套利交易承受压力。日元升值使得欧元兑日元的汇率从167.35下降到1.6655，而澳元兑日元的汇率大幅跳水，降至100.87。美元和油价的关系依旧紧张，wti升至$143.66bll而欧元兑美元的汇率创新高到达1.5836。目前高油价、高风险规避程度、ECB的强硬态度和美国国内日益恶化的经济状况将使得在近期内美元不景气。
在本周的第一天，昨天美国股市显得无精打采，S&P500只上涨0.1%，而NASDAQ仅下降1.0%。在昨天平静的一天，原油价格创新记录，接近$144，刺激了更多的交易。十大板块中有六个是增长的，其余四个下跌。今天上午亚洲股市走低，日经指数下跌0.1%，恒生指数跌停，而MSCI A-P下跌0.2%。金融股票的形势更加不容乐观，日本贸易信心指数也随之下跌，与此同时，有报告称中国制造业的增幅也在减缓。欧洲期货交易情况低迷，我们预计明日开市时会走低。
BOJ对第二季度对各领域的调查报告都比预期情况要乐观，但是总体上却反映了缓慢恶化的趋势。大型制造业指数达到5，这一数值的预期值是3。大型非制造业指数达到10，这一数值的预期值是8。所有产业资本支出2.4%，这一数值的预期值是2.0%。虽然从表面上看，当天日元买入对贸易有利，但是我们仍然认为宏观经济形势在近期内会限制价格的波动。
在澳大利亚，正如市场所期待，RBA将利率保持在7.25% 。他们还就利率问题作了两点解释。首先，中央银行承认国内经济增长放缓，并声称“最近的市场信息给予评估新的证据”。其次，央行认可了“目前劳动力市场有松弛的迹象”。除此之外，RBA提到国际高油价的作用及其对国内经济增长造成的压力。我们相信，在未来可能出现宽松货币政策的情况下，此时开始购入澳元为时过早，因为宏观经济条件继续支持澳元。
在欧洲市场，我们将继续看到欧元区的高失业率是劳动力市场不景气的证明。尽管四月的统计数据表明失业率是7.10%，然而实际失业的人数却在上涨。在英国主要PMI可能会降至50以下，这一数值将是三年内的第一次出现。
欧元对美元汇率
今天，似乎风险在继续上升。我们看到，汇率达到1.5844. 在阻力面上方，我认为熊市行情将达到1.6020。支撑点1.5628, 1.5537 和1.5460-68被重置，验证了我对熊市行情的看法。在支撑面的下方，1.5285-1.5303将成为下一个目标。
美元对日元汇率
如果支撑点是104.99，那么汇率很可能持续走低到达下一个支撑面104.40, 103.87 和102.57-73。在后者下方，我们认为汇率将进一步降低到100.03。在上行区域，第一阻力点是107.22，随后是106.47。支撑点将重置到107.67 和108.59-62。牛市行情只能再次出现在后者上方。
英镑对美元汇率
我们观察到现在的英镑兑美元汇率是1.9965，这是对下一个阻力面2.0030-50的试探。如果我们放弃后者，那么利率可能升至2.0140和2.0200。支撑点是1.9800，随后是1.9705-15。如果重置，我们将试探1.9585-90。昨天被套牢的人形势可能会逆转。
Market Brief
Usd was slightly weaker in the Asian session as a better then expected Tankan survey caused a wave of Jpy buying. UsdJpy continued its 4 day downward trend falling from 106.40 to 105.70 while EurUsd was range bound bouncing around the 1.5740 / 70 levels. Carry trades came under pressure as risk appetite waned and Jpy strengthened with EurJpy falling from 167.35 to 1.6655 and AudJpy diving to 100.87. The Usd / Oil relationship remains tight with WTI trading up to $143.66bll while EurUsd traded to a high 1.5836. The current environment defined by higher energy prices, rising risk aversion, a hawkish ECB (and supporting inflation data coming in at 4.0% yesterday) and deteriorating US domestic economy will keep the Usd bearish in the near term.
Yesterday US stock markets started the week with a yawn, with the S&P500 closing the day up 0.1%, while the NASDAQ closed lower by 1.0%. On a quiet day, crude prices hit new intra-day records of nearly $144 which caused more selling amongst consumer stocks. Six of the ten sectors moved higher, with four lower. Asian stock markets are slightly lower this morning with the Nikkei down 0.1%, the Hang Seng is closed today and the MSCI A-P lower by 0.2%. Financial stocks were lower, following a decline in Japanese business confidence, while Chinese manufacturing growth was reported to have slowed. In the wake of the activity in the Asian session, European futures are trading lower and we are looking for a negative open.
The BoJ Tankan survey for Q2 came in slightly better then expected in all areas except overall show deterioration. The large manufacturing index reached 5 (3 was expected), large non-manufacturing index reached 10 (8 was expected), and the large all-industry CAPEX was 2.4% (2.0% was expected). While some of the intraday Jpy buying can be attributed to the superficial positive data, we still believe macro conditions will define price activity in the near term.
In Australia, the RBA held rates at 7.25% which was widely expected. There was two real areas of interest in their statement. First was admission by the Central Bank that domestic growth was slowing saying "the most recent flow of information has given additional support to that assessment". Second was the acknowledgment that “some tentative signs of an easing in labor market conditions". In addition, the RBA mentioned the role of higher energy prices that fuels global inflation and putts pressure on domestic growth. We believe it’s too early to begin selling Aud in anticipation of monetary easing as the macro environment will continue to support the Aud.
In the European session, markets will be watching Euro zone unemployment which should show further evidence of weakness in the labor markets. While April reading was unchanged at 7.10% the actually number of people without jobs has increased. In the UK headline PMI is expect to fall below the 50 threshold for the first time in 3 years. |
