|
亚洲市场--美元近期内看跌
今日汇评
周五收市时，美元虽然在亚洲市场还算稳定，但由于上涨的油料价格和虚弱的资本市场影响，美元发展仍处于虚弱趋势。欧元对美元呈现上升趋势，从周五收市时的1.5730上升至1.5798。美元对日元从106.40下跌至105.77，英镑对美元反弹至了1.9940水平。日元走强后，风险波动性及风险胃口的降低都使得套利交易在近期市盘中均面临压力。亚洲区域市场中，澳元对日元从102.50下跌至101.80，而欧元对日元从168.11下跌至167.04。受油价新的历史数值（$142.99）影响，周五道琼斯工业指数下降了大约9%，由于投资者通货膨胀预期下降（由于平稳的PCE数据所致），Trsy收益率指数也出现下跌，由于再次出现上涨趋势，我们预期美元将继续面临压力。若我们的设想符合现实，我们预期欧元对美元本周将试图再度达到1.6000。
由于抬高的能源产品价格吓坏了投资者，美国股票市场周五收市时走低。亚洲股市仍处于卖出形势，中午日经指数出现了-4.5%的降幅。但是欧洲期货市场出现小幅上涨，可能开市价格会高出平均数值。西德克萨斯中质油（WTI）价格依然保持在140.00以上，达到141.66bll。
我们预期ISM数据将下跌至50以下（在之前出现的稳定性指标后），而NFP可能将跌至-100k。继周五的核心个人消费支出平减指数（PCE）保持平稳下跌后，市场预期值2.1% yoy通货膨胀并未收到立刻关注。我们预期周四个人消费支出水平指数（PCE）上涨至4.25%（个人消费支出水平指数PCE周五开始时被冠以强硬警告，说通货膨胀水平正在上升，来自能源价格的第二轮冲击即将提升），且整个欧洲区域经济活动仍将保持一定活力。根据这些预期，我们相信美元对欧元中，美元将继续保持弱势，美元对日元中，将呈现稍少一些弱势。虽然之前市场关注美元数据的上涨，但本周美元可能无法持续该走势。
6月份新西兰企业经营情绪从-49.7上升至-38.7，但经营活动期望值发展趋势仍然较弱，从-4.4发展至-4.0（看上去第二季度GDP值将出现负增长）。同时，通胀水平依然不断提高，这也使得新西兰联储对与预期中即将到来的经济急转趋势能够帮助缓解压力依然心怀担忧。我们预期中央银行九月份压力可得到一定舒缓。
在欧洲，我们预期CPI出现了3.8%的涨幅，已经超出了其3.7%的不舒适水平。但这并不是我们主要的见解，我们认为这一趋势将促使欧洲央行于周四做出收紧利率的决议。
六月份英国服务业指数将是透露出英国经济第二季度良好走势的第一个官方数据。与下降的国民收入发展形式一致，我们预期服务业指数也将趋下降趋势。按揭批核率下跌，并且投机者总在寻求最低投入率，风险值持续正呈上升趋势。但透过这一未见事件，我们预计数据只会出现小幅下降（现在水平已低于90年代水平，所以再下跌的幅度非常有限）。
欧元兑美元--当前位于1.5817（被视为卖出时机），未来将发展至1.5844。在上述阻力位上，我将放弃看空的观点，且认为将走强至1.6020。支持位方面，1.5628，1.5537和1.5460-68将被突破，从而验证我的看空观点。在此下方，1.5285-1.5303将是下一个发展目标值。
美元兑日元--很可能下跌至104.40，103.87和102.57-73等支持位。下跌至后者后，将进一步下跌至100.03。上扬趋势方面，第一阻力位位于106.47，进而达到107.22，并进一步将汇兑价格带回至107.67和108.59-62。只要达到108.59-62，行情将再一次上涨.
英镑兑美元--现位于1.9965，可能试探至下一阻力位2.0030-50。若后者让步，将可能进一步向2.0140和2.0200推进。支持位方面，会在达到1.9800后进而发展至1.9705-15。若突破该点，则可能进一步下探至1.9585-90
Asian Session - Usd Near Term Prospects Bearish
Market Brief
Usd was stable but with a weaker tone in the Asian Session as higher oil prices and weak equity markets carried over from Friday's close. EurUsd trended upwards to 1.5798 from Friday's 1.5730 close. UsdJpy slipped to 105.77 from 106.40 while GbpUsd bounced around the 1.9940 level. With the Jpy gaining strength, volatility on the rise and risk appetite declining carry trades have come under pressure in recent sessions. In Asian trading, AudJpy fell to 101.80 from 102.50 while EurJpy collapsed to 167.04 from 168.11. With the Dow dropping roughly 9% on the back of new record high oil prices (Usd $142.99) and Trsy yields falling as traders paired down inflation expectations (due to steady PCE figures) on Friday, we expect the Usd to continue to come under pressure as the growth side of the story comes back into play. Given our base scenario we expect EurUsd to make another attempt at 1.6000 this week.
US stock markets closed lower on Friday as higher energy prices scared investors. Asia stocks continued the sell off with Nikkei down -.45% mid day. However, European futures are trading slightly in the green and look to open above fair value. WTI is still holding safely above 140.00 at 141.66bll.
With markets focused on growth in the US there is no data this week that will the Usd's cause. We are expecting both ISM to fall below the 50 threshold (after prior indication of stability) while NFP could come out as low as -100k. In addition, with Friday’s core PCE deflator holding steady and lower than market expectations at 2.1% yoy inflation is less of an immediate concern. Also, we expect the ECB to hike rates on Thursday to 4.25% (ECB Starks comments on Friday were decidedly hawkish, warning that inflation was rising and second round effect from energy prices were increasing) while in whole of the Euro zone exhibits resilient economic activity. Given these expectations we believe Usd will stay weak against Eur and to a lesser extent Jpy.
In New Zealand Business Sentiment June improved to -38.7 from -49.7; However, expectations remained weak -4.0 from -4.4 (looks like Q2 GDP will go negative). While inflation levels remain elevated and worrisome for the RBNZ in the near term, a sharp turn in economic prospects will help easy pressure and we expect the central bank to being easing in Sept.
In Europe we expect CPI inflation to increase to 3.8%. This insight will only amplified the ECBs resolution to tighten rates on Thursday.
In the UK April's Index of Services will be the first official look at at the well-being of the UK economy in Q2. With national accounts being revised down we can expected service to follow the trend downwards. With Mortgage Approvals collapsing there is always a risk of an unexpected spike upwards as opportunity seekers look for a bottom. But baring this unseen event, we see slightly lower figures (note levels are below 1990s so downside is limited).
|
