亚洲市场——美元受油价冲击而贬值
今日汇评
亚洲市场在经历了昨天的油价波动之后，美元走强，而人们对经济增长情况的担忧却对美元造成负面影响。欧元兑美元的汇率从1.5763 反弹到 1.5724，英镑兑美元的汇率也随之从1.9897下跌至 1.9857。但是，市场压力减少，与熊市相悖，近期美元变得更有吸引力，我们能预期美元将走弱。美国股票市场大幅跳水，而与此同时，原油价格创历史新高。亚洲股市紧随其后，欧洲期货市场也正面临着下跌
周二美国证券市场经历了熊市，欧洲市场亦是如此。S&P500的跌幅近3%， DJIA的损失则超过了3%，而NASDAQ指数的下跌有3.3%之多。S&P500跌破1300关口，于此相反的是，原油价格向$140逼近，但是还没有到达$140。美国经济新闻对此作了恰如其分的评价，但是完全被忽视了。炎炎夏日似乎会很长。OPEC主席称今年内原油价格将冲击$170每桶。在这项声明发表之后，原油价格飙升，突破每桶$140。Goldman Sachs预计花旗集团的资产将继续减值，而他们也已经建议出售汽车股份，这一消息震撼了金融股票市场。
今天上午亚洲市场出乎意料地走低，Nikkei指数下跌2.7%，恒生指数减少1.8%，而MSCI A-P也下降了2.4%。这一地区回到1992年以来最糟糕的时期，而且信用指数跌至谷底。
我们发现日本的经济数据显示该国的经济情况非常不尽如人意。零售业增长超过市场预期的0.2%，但是在二月达到峰值之后就开始下降了。通过仔细观察，你会发现燃料消费的增长率是以0.1%的速度递减的。通过对家庭消费情况的调查，实际消费下降3.2% ，超过预期2.1%的跌幅，而汽车销售增长放缓，只有0.2%。我们认为更多的证据表明日本经济在国内市场和国际市场都将面临较大阻碍，预计日元将会震荡。
在欧洲市场我们能看到EC信心指数的作用。这一指数表明，近期内考虑到欧元区的经济活动，消费者持乐观态度，但是今天该指数会有所下降。随着欧元升值和国际市场需求的因素，产业信心也将不足。但是，因为商品价格和股票市场会得到权衡，所以我们认为一个较弱的数据将不会对欧元兑美元的汇率造成明显的影响。除此而外，我们预期欧洲央行会提高利率，NFP会提供10万个新就业岗位，因此欧元兑美元的汇率达到1.6000是可能的。
Asian Session - Usd Falls as Oil Surges
Market Brief
Usd was slightly stronger in the Asian session after yesterday surging oil prices and worries over growth punished the greenback. EurUsd pulled back from 1.5763 to 1.5724 while GbpUsd followed as 1.9897 to 1.9857. However, the easing of pressure goes against the bearish feel the Usd attracted over recent days and we expect further dollar weakness. US stock markets took a massive dive while crude push to it highest levels ever. Asian stock markets followed the US lower and European equities futures are pointing to a negative open.
Thursday was a red day for US equity markets, as it was for markets in Europe. The S&P500 was lower by nearly 3%, while the DJIA was off by just over 3%, and the NASDAQ by 3.3%. The S&P500 broke through the 1300 level, while crude was moving in the opposite direction crossing the $140 mark, before closing at a record of just under $140. US Economic news out on the day was decent, but was completely overlooked. The summer looks like it's going to be a long one...Oil prices shot up over $140 barrel after the head of OPEC stated that prices could hit $170 barrel this year. Goldman Sachs forecasted more write-downs for Citigroup and they also recommended selling auto shares, this news sent shivers through financial stocks.
Asian markets are unsurprisingly lower this morning, as the Nikkei declines 2.7%, the Hang Seng is down 1.8% and the MSCI A-P is lower by 2.4%. The region is set to return its worst H1 since 1992, as the credit crunch hits home.
In our view Japan's economic data was decidedly negative. Retail sales exceeded market expectations reaching 0.2% but has slowed since February's peak and when you carve out fuel consumption was -0.1% yoy. Household survey's showed real spending was down -3.2% vs. -2.1% exp and Auto sales slowed to 0.2%. In our mind just more evidence that Japan is facing significant headwind on both the domestic & international front and we expect Jpy to suffer.
In the European session markets will be watching EC Economic Sentiment Indicator. This indicator has recently been optimistic regarding economic activity in the euro zone but should fall further today. With the euro at elevated levels and global demand soft industrial confidence should also weaken. However with markets trading off commodity prices and stock markets we don't expect a soft figure will have significant effect on EurUsd strength. In addition, since we are expecting the ECB to hike and NFP to shed over 100k jobs 1.6000 doesn't seem impossible.
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