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亚洲市场——FOMC之后市场的平静
今日汇评
美元应联邦公开市场委员会召开的会议要求卖空，因此在亚洲市场变得稳定。欧元兑美元的汇率在1.5660和 1.5685之间波动，而与此同时美元兑日元从107.75上涨到了108.05。套利交易仍然显示强劲的势头，欧元兑日元最终突破168.80阻力点向169.40爬升。澳元兑日元表现出同样的趋势，突破阻力点103.48，到达一个新的高点位103.69。除此而外，由于欧元兑日元的汇率历来作为风险偏好的标示，我们能预期到货币交易能带动更多的投资收益需求。
周三美国股市在油价下跌后高收，美联储将利率保持在2%。在下午较晚时候的交易中，主要的指数从原先FOMC的高点位反弹，只有Dow勉强维持不变。在美联储宣布经济增长的负面影响已经消失并且近期内没有提高利率的计划之后，亚洲市场今天上午交易量增加。Sony和 Nintendo增加最多。在原油储量的突然增加之后油价回落，但是美联储的一番发言挽回了些许损失；08年8月的远期合同价格下跌$2.45到$134.55。在低油价的支撑下，黄金价格也收于低点位，最明显的是08年8月远期合同价格下跌$9.30 到 $882.30。我们还看到 08年9月白银远期合同价格变化-13.2 ¢ 收于 $16.607/oz。
昨天美联储保持2%的利率不变，他们的发言表明负面的风险略有减少，但是上升的通胀风险却在持续。总体而言，这番讲话不及市场预期的强硬，但是却隐藏了美联储急于提高利率的动机。正如人们所料，Fisher支持适度的利率上涨（会议记录显示美联储不应让利率保持在3.5%以下）。有趣的是，Plossers认为利率应和大多数情况保持一致，而市场有明显的信号，这个想法会使得利率预期过犹不及。除此而外，美联储缺乏对通胀和经济增长的比较，而通过这一比较，美联储的货币政策能够再次证明在悬而未决的国内形势下，成员们并不急于提高利率。近期内利率是下跌还是上涨取决于国内经济数据。我们对美国已无更多的期待，并且相信这些数据反映了美国经济将面临不很严重的下降风险。这一切将导致美元受到压力，而我们也看到了欧元兑美元的汇率在曲折地向上爬升。
虽然澳大利亚的经济数据对货币政策几乎没有影响，但是财政货币管理部门不希望经常账户赤字进一步扩大（第二季度赤字额从第一季度的3.410bn跌至2.160bn）。账户赤字和GDP的比值为7.8%。净收入赤字加剧，尽管出口大于进口。
澳大利亚的经济数据和世界大企业联合会指标上升0.3%，而不是如预期那样下降0.4%，而就业岗位在四月减少2.5%之后，增加了3.4%。
在香港，MPC的五名成员将向财政委员会就五月通胀的报告进行说明（这不是令人羡慕的工作）。由于成员们正在慎重地考虑利率上调的问题，这给市场的重新整顿提供良好契机。值得一提的是前几周复杂的交流信息。但是总体而言我们预计将看到成员们会对通胀和增长形势的比较提出各不相同的看法。
Asian Session - Markets Calm after FOMC
Market Brief
Usd was stable in the Asian session after being sold off in response to the FOMC meeting. EurUsd ranged between 1.5660 and 1.5685 while UsdJpy trended upwards from 107.75 to 108.05. Carry trades continued to exhibit strong momentum with EurJpy finally breaking thru 168.80 resistance, climbing to 169.40 and AudJpy followed that trend by breaking thru 103.48 resistance, reaching new highs at 103.69. In addition, given the fact that the EurJpy has historically proven to be a good indicator of risk appetite we expect continued demand of yield driven currency trades.
US stocks ended higher Wednesday after oil prices fell and the Fed left rates unchanged at 2%. The major indexes retreated from their post-FOMC highs in late-afternoon trading, with the Dow barely closing in positive territory. Asian markets trading higher this morning after the Fed said downside risks to growth appear to have diminished and gave no signs that it will raise interest rates anytime soon. Sony & Nintendo led the advancers. Oil prices pulled back after an unexpected increase in crude stockpiles but pared their losses after the Fed statement; the Aug '08 contract was down $2.45 to $134.55. Gold prices closed lower on the back of lower oil prices; the most active was the Aug '08 contract down $9.30 to $882.30. We also saw Sep '08 silver -13.2 ¢ at $16.607/oz.
Yesterday the Fed left rates unchanged at 2.00% and the statement showed the downside risks have diminished slightly and upside inflation risks have increased. Overall the statement had a less hawkish tone then what the market was expecting and failed to indicate that the fed is in any real hurry to begin hiking rates. As expected Fisher voted for an immediate hike (on the record saying the fed shouldn’t have moved below 3.5%). What was interesting and perhaps the strongest signal to the market that rate expectation have become over done was Plossers vote to hold rates along with the majority. In addition, the lack of assessment by the Fed of how inflation measured against growth ie which measurement would steer the Fed monetary policy suggested again that members are in no rush to hike given the unsettled domestic condition. With both rate cuts and hikes off the table in the near term much depends on economic data. We currently are not expecting much for the US and believe data will point to an economy just getting by but with significant downside risk. This should keep the Usd under pressure and we are watching for EurUsd to begin creeping upwards.
While data out of New Zealand has little monetary policy effect, a wider Current account deficit was not what official were hoping for (declined to 2.160bn deficit in Q1 from 3.410bn in Q1). Account deficit GDP ratio at 7.8%. Net income deficits worsened while exports outstripped imports.
Austria data was mixed with Conference Board indicators printed higher then expected at 0.3% vs. -0.4% while job vacancies rose 3.4% after a drop in April of -2.5%.
In the UK five members of the MPC will testify to the treasury committee on May inflation report (not a position we envy). This should be a good time for the markets to receive some clarity regarding how seriously the members are considering a rate hike. Especially given last weeks mixed communications signals. But overall we expect that we will see a diverse view of how each member views the inflation verse growth situation.
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