|
亚洲市场-静候美联储的动态
今日汇评
外汇交易在亚洲市场表现异常平静，投资者都在等候FOMC会议的最终结果。欧元对美元，保持在10 pip的范围，汇率大幅下跌，在欧洲开市之后，又从 1.5565 小升至1.5577。美元对日元，没有任何令人振奋的表现，从 107.67小升到107.94，尽管美国的出口量大涨了 3.7%是个极大的利好。英镑对美圆，跟随其他货币对美圆的走势，在1.9695 和1.9712之间波动。利差交易有所走弱，欧元对日圆降至167.64，澳元对日圆，降至102.90.
股市在星期二波动低走收市，主要源于6月份消费者信心指数下跌到16个月以来的最低点，UBS也发布了慎重投资的警告。由于金属价格的下跌直接严重影响矿业公司的业绩，亚洲市场今天开盘普遍走低。日本股市普遍走低，主要由于市场对于开发者和消费者金融公司的不履约的担忧。利率和美国石油储存量对外进行了公布，石油开盘走高，收市低于当天的峰值$139。2008年8月份的合同价上涨了$0.26 ，至 $137.00。黄金价格开盘走高，美圆的弱势支撑了市场对于贵金属的需求。08年8月份的合同价上涨了 $4.40 ，至$891.60。08年9月的银价下跌了15.7 ¢ ，至$16.739/oz。
新西兰的Westpac消费者信心指数从 96.5 迅速下跌至 81.7，刚好在90年代早期暴跌所创的历史最低点之上。RBNZ一直在寻找房地产市场衰退的证据，而这个数据恰好说明了这个趋势。我们预期，中央银行将会在秋季采取紧缩性货币政策。
如果你并没有听说，FOMC今天将要对外宣布他们的利率调整政策以及相应的货币措施，我们会支持市场预期，相信美联储将把利率稳定在2.00%。我们预计，考虑到通货膨胀和通涨预期，政策方面将有一些改变，然而我们远没有之前那样肯定和强硬。比预期的要更加乐观一点，零售业、库存量和国内贸易的发展态势表明，第2季度的GDP将小幅萎缩，ISM生产将继续增强，对于美圆的投资将稳定放大。然而，我们还是预计美国经济会有全面衰退的危险。疲软的房地产市场、消费者信心指数的下挫、社会财富的缩水，这些因素都充分预示了衰退。市场将受鸽派论调影响，且由于近期缺少支持利率上涨的力量，市场将略有走低。
然而，我们还应当关注这个信息，最近欧洲央行发表声明，称他们并没有发布欧盟区将提高汇率的消息，以此来辟谣，澄清利率将会上调的市场传言。欧洲央行的决策者非常清楚，近期的时常状态很难有上调利率的可能。
除了FOMC之外，挪威银行（波兰银行也发布消息，上调利率 25bp 至 6.00% ）将公布利率和货币政策。40%的经济学家都预测将有25bp的利率上调，风险很难控制。由此，我们可以预见，25bp的上涨。我们预期，MPR将适当调整通涨政策，这些因素将对挪威元利好。
Asian Session - Waiting on the Fed
Market Brief
FX markets were unusually calm in the Asian session as markets await the news from the FOMC meeting. EurUsd was stuck in a 10 pip range for most of the session trading from 1.5565 to 1.5577 before breaking to the downside as Europe prepared to open. UsdJpy provided little excitement ranging from 107.67 to 107.94 despite trade data showing that exports jumped a whopping 3.7%. GBP traded between 1.9695 and 1.9712 as it followed the rest of the currencies against the USD. Carry trades eased slightly from their elevated levels with EurJpy falling to 167.64 & AudJpy 102.90.
Stocks ended up lower after a choppy session Tuesday in the wake of consumer confidence data that fell to a 16 month low in June and after UBS’s profit warning. Asian markets are mostly trading down this morning due to a fall in metal prices that weighed heavily on the mining companies. Japanese stocks were lower on the back of default concerns around developer and consumer-finance companies. Oil prices closed higher, but below the day’s peak of near $139, ahead of today’s rate announcement and US petroleum inventory data. The Aug '08 contract is up $0.26 to $137.00. Gold closed with gains, as weakness in the dollar underpinned demand for the precious metal; the most active Aug '08 contract up $4.40 to $891.60 and Sep '08 silver -15.7 ¢ at $16.739/oz.
In New Zealand The Westpac consumer confidence index fell sharply from 96.5 to 81.7 and is just above the extreme lows recorded in the early 90's recession. The RBNZ was looking for more evidence of weakness in the household sector and this clearly helps build a case. We expect the central bank to begin cutting in the fall.
If you haven’t heard already the FOMC will be announcing their rate decisions and releasing an accompanying statement later today. We are inline with market expectation and believe the Fed will hold rates at 2.00%. We expect some slight changes in the accompanying statement specifically regarding inflation and inflation expectations, however we are less hawkish then most. On the growth side, better then expected retail sales, inventories and external trade indicates that GDP will just miss contracting in Q2, while both ISM manufacturing and non-Manu have strengthened in recent months. However, we expect the downside risk to the US economy, which has been highlighted by a string of soft housing, consumer confidence data, and the decline in households’ real incomes and wealth shrinking to influence the Fed decision (we are expecting 1-2 members to vote for a hike). Overall we expect the market to be slightly disappointed by the dovish tone and lack of willingness to pre commit to any rate hike near term. Should our base scenario prove correct we should see some Usd weakness as the 60bp already priced in for 2008 looks over done.
However, it should be noted that recently The ECB has been trying to pour cold water on recent comments that there will be a more aggressive rate increasing policy by saying they have not spoken about a series of rate hikes in the Eurozone. Basically it seems that policy makers at the ECB are concerned that investors have jumped the gun and that the latest data could make it harder to raise rates that previously thought.
In addition to the FOMC, the Norge Bank (Poland Central bank is also releasing and are expect to raise 25bp to 6.00%) will also announce rates and publish its monetary policy report today. Risk is slightly skewed to a hold, but with 40% of economists that were polled looking for a hike of 25bp this will be a close one to call. We are expected a 25bp hike in the next 6 months, however this will not be the meeting. We expect the MPR to show inflation projection being revised upward which keep the NOK supported.
|
