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亚洲市场-走势平平
今日汇评
美元今天在亚洲市场走势平平，投资者们都在密切关注星期三的FOMC利率公报。欧元对美元，在积聚上升的力量，从1.5495涨至1.5538，美元对日元，两次冲击108.20的阻力位。美联储的政策并没有给与市场任何的引导性意见，欧洲市场的走势平平，最近的走势也将是被压抑的。
美国股市在星期一大部分走低，源于投资者对于金融公司前景的普遍担忧，以及原油价格再度攀升。亚洲股市各大板块走势不一，正如华尔街股市的异彩纷呈一样。在中国同意提高从力拓矿业采购铁矿石的价格之后，日本的钢铁制造企业股票大幅下跌。尽管美元有一定幅度反弹，沙特阿拉伯也宣布将增加石油产量200K，今天的油价还是继续走高，08年8月份的合同价涨了$1.38 ，到现在的$136.74。 黄金价格收盘走低，因为美元的力量削弱了对于贵金属的需求量，08年8月份的合同价下跌了$16.50，至现在的$887.20。08年7月的银价下跌了60.7 ¢，收至$16.790/oz。
美国财政部秘书长Henry Paulson在星期一，发表声明，敦促石油生产国扩大石油生产量，提出警告，飙升的能源成本价格将延长美国经济的衰退期。他说，“这是一个非常非常重要的问题，高涨的油价将直接导致严重的经济问题。这对全世界的人民来说，都是一个沉重的负担
美国市场将遭遇Case-Shiller20城市住房价格指数的持续走低。大量的未售住房将可能继续拉低房产的价格，将导致房地产市场的持续低迷。我们预期，FOMC将在明天力保利率的稳定。房地产市场的问题是美联储的一个担忧，就现在的市场环境而言，提高利率将不为大家所接受，所以，美联储会据此力保利率的稳定。
昨天，德国6月份的Ifo 商业气象指数下跌至101.3(创2005年12月份以来的最低点)。对于商业环境现状的消极评价和经济指数的利空预期，直接导致了指数的下跌。然而，从长期的平均水平来看，这份调查只能说明德国经济在短期内的适度的放缓状态。
Asian Session - Light Trading in Asia
Market Brief
Usd was stable in the Asian session as speculators have begun to position themselves in front of Wednesday FOMC rate announcement. EurUsd started to gain some positive momentum, trading up to 1.5538 from 1.5495 while the UsdJpy tested the 108.20 resistance twice as the Asian day progressed. With a light event calendar in Europe and markets still uncertain as to the direction of the Fed we would expect market activity to be subdued and range-bound.
US stocks ended mostly weaker Monday as concerns about the outlook for financial companies weighed and crude oil prices climbed higher. Asian markets trading mixed this morning following Wall Street's mixed performance and on the back of higher oil prices. Japanese steelmaker shares fell after China agreed to record iron-ore price increases from Rio Tinto. Oil prices rallied despite the bounce in the dollar and a pledge from the Saudis to increase production by 200K bpd; the Aug '08 contract up $1.38 to $136.74. Gold closed with losses as the strength in the dollar dulled demand for the precious metal; the most active Aug '08 contract down $16.50 to $887.20. Jul '08 silver -60.7 ¢ at $16.790/oz.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Monday urged oil-producing nations to boost their output and warned that soaring energy costs threatened to prolong a U.S. economic slowdown. "This is a very, very important issue because the high price of oil is creating economic issues...and is a heavy burden for people around the world"
The US markets will be expecting a decline in the Case-Shiller 20-city house price index. The enormous inventory of unsold homes will likely pull down home prices further and will keep the risks to the downside. We expect the FOMC to hold rates tomorrow. The housing market is a source of worry for the Fed and a hike will not be welcomed given present market conditions, just another reason the Fed will hold rates. We believe the market should tone down its expectations for an aggressive inflation fighting statement and therefore possible short term Usd weakness.
Yesterday, the German Ifo business climateindex fell to 101.3 in June (lowest since December 2005). The decline was helped by a softer assessment of the current business situation and a fall in the business expectations index. However the long-run average and the survey still points to only a moderate slowdown Germany economic activity.
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