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今日汇评
今天，美元在亚洲市场表现平稳，源于没有任何有引导性的经济数据的出炉。欧元对美元，成功的突破了1.5490 – 1.5520的阻力位，上涨到1.5536。美元对日元，在107.85-108.05的小范围内，不断波动。英镑对美元，一改两天以来的强劲走势，小幅下跌到1.9701。然而，英镑保持了牛市的走势，在一步步突破渠道的阻力。今天的经济局势走势平平，美元对瞬息万变的国际油市极为敏感。中国宣布国内油价上涨8%，沙特宣布要增加石油产出，作为市场反应，国际油价下跌了4.8%，至131.25每桶。尽管资源产品的价格有所下跌，美元收益仍然保持增长了5bp。
美国股市在星期四走势不错，但仅仅是因为利好消息的暂时性刺激。十大板块当中的九大板块都全线走高，消费品市场 (+1.2%) ，信息技术(+1.2%), 能源(-2.1%)是唯一一个飘红的板块市场。这些板块的积极表现的诱因是，中国提高国内石油价格，降低储备金率的政策。中国的政策预示着需求量的降低，直接导致了资源市场价格的走低。早市开盘，亚洲市场全线走低，日经指数下跌down 1.2%, 恒生指数小涨1.3%， MSCI A-P下跌 0.2%。随着中国提高油价的政策，原油生产企业和能源公司在中国地区行情看跌，然而精炼企业将走高，他们可以进一步提高产品的价格，然而中国的航空公司的走势也不容乐观。
今天大盘走势十分平稳，因为四大关键市场新闻问题即将出炉，股指期货、股票期货、股指期权、股票期权都已期满，新的大政方针将直接导向后续的走势。
昨天，SNB稳定住利率水平, 3m-Libor中期指数维持在2.75%。市场保持观望态度，央行是否会选择挑战通胀压力还是会减缓GDP的增长，在第一季度增长了0.3%。市场将从利率上得到答案，其他的经济数据不利好也不利空，这些因素都将深刻影响瑞士法郎的走势。
欧洲央行的Trichet今天将发表演讲，主题目前还是未知，但既有可能还是重申欧洲央行的强硬政策的立场。
欧元对美元-
阻力位位于1.5620 、1.5735前方的1.5587.。可能的话，将直接冲击1.5819、 1.5844。看空的话,1.5460、1.5415将冲击重要的阻力点1.5303-1.5285.如果这点被突破的话，将极有可能继续下探1.4935。
美元对日元--
现在居然位于 108.60的高点. 看多的话, 将有可能上探至110.83,甚至可能到114.66. 看空的话, 106.43-56 应该是主要的支撑点，如果这点被突破的话， 104.40 、103.87 将还会继续下探103.05. 下部的关键点在102.57-61，将面临压力. 如果不能守住的话，将下跌至100.83、100.03。
美元对英镑--
1.9746 将再次试探 1.9800 ，1.9847-52是重要的关键点. 看空的话, now 1.9580、1.9470-78的位置将冲击1.9409。主要阻力区域位于 1.9337-61. 之后的话, 1.9185-1.9213是下一个重要支撑点，最终将可能下探1.8800。
Market Brief
Usd was stable in Asian Session as a lack of data provided no real direction. EurUsd was able to break out of its tight 1.5490 – 1.5520 range rising to 1.5536 as Asia wrapped up trading. UsdJpy traded in a tight yet, choppy 107.85-108.05 range. GbpUsd pulled back slightly after a strong two day run falling to 1.9701. However going into Europe the Gbp has picked up a bullish tone and looks to break channel resistant. With a light economic calendar today, Usd trading pattern will be highly susceptible to volatile oil prices. Oil fell roughly 4.8% to 131.25bll in reaction to China announcing that it will raise domestic fuel prices by 8%, and the Saudi statement to raise output. However despite the decline in energy prices US yields actually rose by 5bp.
US equity markets closed with gains on Thursday, despite being a limited day in terms of newsflow. Nine of the ten sectors closed higher, led by Consumer Discretionary (+1.2%) and Info Tech (+1.2%), while Energy(-2.1%) was the only sector in the red. Much of the sector action could be explained by China's decision to hike domestic petrol and gas prices, removing subsidies, which drove crude prices lower, on expectations of lower demand. Asian markets are lower this morning, with the Nikkei down 1.2%, the Hang Seng is up 1.3% and the MSCI A-P is down 0.2%. With China raising fuel prices, crude producers and energy companies were lower across the region, although Chinese refiners (Sinopec and PetroChina) were higher, as they can charge more for their products, while Chinese airlines were lower.
Today is to be very quiet in terms of expected news headlines, although it is quadruple witching day with stock index futures, stock futures, stock index options and stock options all expiring, which can always provide the unexpected.
Yesterday, the SNB held rates, with the 3m-Libor mid point 2.75%. Markets were on the fence to whether the Central Bank would opt to challenge building inflationary pressures or would a slowing q1 0.3% GDP q/q keep the bank on hold. While the market got their answer on rates, the accompanying statement had a neutral tone which weighed heavily on the Chf.
ECB’s Trichet will speak today while the topic of the speech is unknown any mention of monetary policy will most likely reiterate the ECB hawkish stance.
17.45gmt - ECB’s Trichet Speaks
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