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亚洲市场-美元走高，质疑在消逝
今日汇评
今天亚洲市场的美元走势稍有起色。英镑对美元，在星期二大幅出清抛售导致从1.9700 狂跌至1.9472，今天稍有好转，回升到1.9511。欧元对美元，在亚洲市场开盘表现活跃，随着交易的继续进行，从1.5520小幅滑落到1.5480。美元对日元，保持在107.90 至108.00的范围，日本方面的经济数据并没有给与市场任何的引导。
美国股市在星期二再次走低，尽管GS (-1.5%)和 Best Buy (-5.3%)有很好的盈利，仍然无法撬动整个大盘。只有3个板块有上涨，能源 (+1.7%) 和材料(+0.2%)是唯一的获利者。金融板块再次下跌(-2.9%)，正如GS的报告，他们打破了投资者的预期，挫败了投资者的信心。亚洲市场开盘走高，日经指数上涨 0.7%,恒生指数上涨1.3% ，MSCI A-P上涨 0.5%。矿业板块上涨，日用品价格也上涨了。
美元今天的强劲走势让我们看到，昨天各大媒体新闻报道的负面效果已经在消逝。然而，美国利率将走高的观点似乎还是不够成熟的。2008年以来已经有过3次利率的上调，因此，再次走高的可能性实在不大。下周即将公布的美联储会议报告将起着至关重要的作用，将左右投资者们的心态。
BoJ5月份的报告已经公布，似乎在近期没有任何的关于货币政策变动的信息。我们还是预计，美元对日元，将在中期到达110.00。主要的指数和配合指数都完全符合我们的预期。
大家都在热切期盼着英国 MPC报告的新鲜出炉。然而，似乎我们也不可能会看到什么令人鼓舞的消息。我们有理由怀疑，委员会不会提出提高利率的建议，因为MPC成员明白CPI已经增长了超过3.0%，这并没有任何紧缩的迹象。我们估计，态度激进的David Blanchflower是唯一的反对者，他一直以来就漠视通货膨胀的影响，仅仅关注劳动力市场的数据。而且CBI的调查显示，通胀在持续，但价格并没有到达顶峰。
8.35gmt – 欧洲央行的Tumpel-Gugerell 评论
16.45gmt –美联储的Yellen 评论
21.00gmt - Paulson 和中国副主席发布会后的简报
欧元/美元-
从长期来看，我看空这个汇率，它即将到达最主要的支撑点。今天走的是一个相反的态势。 阻力区域位于1.5620 、1.5735之前的1.5587。 也有可能上探至1.5819 、1.5844.。看空的话, 从1.5415将下探1.5303-1.5285的重要阻力位. 如果这一点被突破，极有可能继续下探至1.4935, 下探过程之前将遭遇1.5145的重要阻力位。
美元/日元-
极有可能全力上探至 108.60. 之后，可能继续上攻至110.83, 甚至达到114.66的高点. 看空的话, 106.43-56 应该能保住，如果守不住, 将下探104.40 、103.87 阻力区之后的103.05.。下部的主要支撑点在 102.57-61，将颇有压力. 如果这一点也保不住的话，将全力下探至100.83 、100.03。
英镑/美元--
从11月份持续至今的熊市，将有潜力达到1.8800， 但可能只是试探性的动荡下跌。现在的力量而言，有可能升至1.9800,，也许是 1.9847-52 的位置，这被认为是抛售的大好时机。如果这点被突破，将可能上升至1.9910-15 。看空的话， 将到达1.9610 、1.9514 、1.9409. 1.9360之下的风险比较大，如果这点失守的话，将继续下探1.9337-63 和1.9185。
Asian Session - Usd Gains as Questions Fade
Market Brief
Usd was slightly stronger in Asian session as yields moved lower. GbpUsd was able to regain slightly to 1.9511 from Tuesday’s massive sell-off which saw the cable fall sharply from 1.9700 to 1.9472 lows. EurUsd was range bound for much of the Asian session but slipped to 1.5480 from 1.5520 as the trading day progressed. UsdJpy was stuck in a tight range of 107.90 to 108.00 as Japanese data failed to give the market any direction.
US equity markets finished lower on Tuesday, as positive earnings from GS (-1.5%) and Best Buy (-5.3%) weren't enough to lift the market. Only three sectors finished higher, with Energy (+1.7%) and Materials (+0.2%) being the sole real gainers. Financials (-2.9%) were once again the issue, as the GS report, where they beat estimates, did little to raise spirits. Asian markets are higher this morning, with the Nikkei up 0.7%, the Hang Seng up 1.3% and the MSCI A-P up 0.5%. Miners were higher, as commodity prices rose, while investors gained confidence that second half earnings may be stronger than expected. JGBs gained for a second day, as speculation mounts that the BoJ may hold off on raising rates this year.
The strength in the Usd leads us to believe that the effect of yesterday’s articles in major newspapers is beginning to dissipate. However, their argument that a rate hike in the US was premature due to weak underlying fundamentals is still extremely valid. With 3 rate hikes in 2008 already priced into the market we believe this optimistic view is slightly overdone. The Fed meeting and accompanying statement this week will be critical in steering Usd sentiment.
The minutes from the BoJ meetings were released and there were no statements which point to a shift in monetary policy in the near term. We continue expect UsdJpy to reach 110.00 in the mid term. Leading Index and Coincident Index both came in line with expectations.
Expect a quiet day for economic data releases with the lone exception being UK MPC minutes for June. However, there is little evidence that we will see anything enlightening. We doubt the committee will suggest rates need to rise since May minutes, where the MPC members knew of CPI inflation above 3.0%, contained no hint of tightening. We expect ultra-dove David Blanchflower to be the lone dissenter, having historically disregarded all inflation news while focusing on the soft labor market data. In addition the CBI survey should show a continued move upwards as there is little evidence price pressures has already peaked. After yesterday sell off we could see temporary Gbp strength was a rate cut is now not expected until q1 2009.
8.35gmt - ECB's Tumpel-Gugerell speaks
16.45gmt -Feds Yellen speaks
21.00gmt - Paulson & China's Vice Premier holds post-meeting briefing |
