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亚洲市场—通货膨胀引领市场走势
今日汇评
亚洲市场，美元走势稍显疲软。房地产行业数据表明了通胀加强的风险，让大家再次关注美元的涨势。欧元对美元，从1.5540直跌落至1.5460，与此同时，美元对日元，从108.28径直滑落到 107.80。由于日元的购买量给交易带来了很大的压力，日元加速了利差交易的下跌趋势。澳元对日元，从102.05 跌至101.50，欧元对日元，有小幅的下跌，但尾市凭借欧元的迅猛势头，重振旗鼓，回到了167.60。EM亚洲指数持续走高，美元对新加坡元，继续走低，收盘于1.3662。
星期一的美国股市表现的异彩纷呈，各有不同的特点。纳斯达克指数走高，S&P500基本持平，DJIA是跌势。国际原油价格牵动人心，占据着报纸的头版头条。今天的油价，先涨后跌，收市于$134。亚洲市场基本保持稳定，日经指数持平，恒生指数和MSCI A-P也差不多。
尾市情况，美国NAHB住房市场指数降到了18，相对比于5月份的19。市场的迅速反应是，大量抛售美元，主要源于人们对于美联储解决通胀问题的信心不足。而且，弃权了的Lacker在发表比较温和的评论：“通货膨胀超过我的预期，但还是比较稳定可控的。但形式上的稳定并不能让我们心安理得。”我们意识到，市场对于美国通胀的反应过于强烈，在积极预计欧元对美观汇率的涨势，而且欧洲央行在6月的第5次会议上公布了7月份的利率将涨到4.25%的消息。更糟糕的是，原油价格重振旗鼓，将破灭美元的任何回复的可能。
澳洲联储6月份的报告和之前的沟通情况基本保持一致，维持紧缩政策，汇率被稳定在7.25%的水平。澳洲联储将需求量的增长，控制在缓慢的可以抑制同伙膨胀的增长范围之内。
抑制需求、增涨工资水平、物价控制等显示出央行的紧缩的未来货币政策。投资者应该密切关注近期公布的市场数据，一些利好的数据消息将直接导致澳元的涨势。然而，澳元对于美元的走势也是非常敏感的。
德国ZEW经济预期指数将再次打击投资者的信心，源于欧洲央行的远足计划、强劲的欧元和放缓的德国出口。严重背离人们的心理预期点位-41.5，将导致部分欧元的抛售。
英国市场，人们目睹了物价上涨的通胀。4月份物价上涨幅度从2.5%涨至 3.0%，3.1%也是极有可能的。这将引发英国央行行长和长官的强烈反应，也将令MPC成员继续坚持强硬态度。
欧元/美元--
现在的汇率十分接近关键支撑点。今天可能会有一个相反的走势。主要的阻力区位于1.5620、.5735之前的1.5587。上升力量积聚的话，将有可能冲击1.5819 、1.5844。看空的话, 从 1.5415将再次试探 1.5303-1.5285的阻力区域.。如果后点被攻陷，我们可以预见继续走低至1.4935, 上部的阻力位是1.5145。
美元/日元--
极有可能全力上探至 108.60. 之后，可能继续上攻至110.83, 甚至达到114.66的高点. 看空的话, 106.43-56 应该能保住，如果守不住, 将下探104.40 、103.87 阻力区之后的103.05.。下部的主要支撑点在 102.57-61，将颇有压力. 如果这一点也保不住的话，将全力下探至100.83 、100.03。
英镑/美元--
从11月份持续至今的熊市，将有潜力达到1.8800， 但可能只是试探性的动荡下跌。现在的力量而言，有可能升至1.9800,，也许是 1.9847-52 的位置，这被认为是抛售的大好时机。如果这点被突破，将可能上升至1.9910-15 。看空的话， 将到达1.9610 、1.9514 、1.9409. 1.9360之下的风险比较大，如果这点失守的话，将继续下探1.9337-63 、 1.9185。
Asian Session - Inflation Story Gains Traction
Market Brief
USD was weaker across the board in the Asian session as elevated inflation figures, as per the E15 report, and lower housing data had markets concerned about US growth. EurUsd traded up sharply to 1.5460 from 1.5540 while UsdJpy slid lower to 107.80 from 108.28. Strong Yen buying put pressure on trades in turn Jpy carry trading dropped. AudJpy sold off to 101.50 from 102.05 and EurJpy dropped but was able to rally up to 167.60 on the back of Eur strength. EM Asia continues to perform well as UsdSgd traded down to a session (and 5 day) low of 1.3662.
Monday saw the US equity markets close in mixed fashion, as the NASDAQ moved higher, while the S&P500 ended flat and DJIA closed lower. Crude price action dominated headlines and sentiment, to some extent, as the price of crude first rose, then fell, closing at $134. Asian markets are near the unchanged mark this morning, with the Nikkei flat, as is the Hang Seng and the MSCI A-P (yes the markets are open!).
In late US session the US NAHB housing market index fell to 18 versus an expected number of 19 (following 19 in May). The market reacted by selling Usd as the Fed’s ability to fight inflation came into question. In addition, non-voting Fed member Lacker sounded less hawkish stating "Inflation expectations are higher than I would like, but they are stable,” however "the apparent stability of inflation does not justify complacency.” We are starting to get the feeling that the market has over reacted to the US inflation story and has increasingly expected EurUsd to trend upwards especially considering the fact that the ECB all but announced a hike in July to 4.25% in the June 5th press conference. In addition, the x factor oil, seems to be regaining forward momentum which will halt any real Usd gains (rumor of a production stoppage in the North Sea didn’t help and optimism around next weekends international summit on oil wanes).
In Australia, RBA minutes from the June meeting (hold at 7.25%) was consistent with previous communications, i.e. rates on hold with a tightening bias. The RBA’s current position is that demand growth is slowing which they hope will control inflation. The Central Bank will look to tighten further if there is an increase in wages or inflation expectations and pricing behavior increases. The market should be paying particular attention to near term data (May and June data was mixed) because it will direct the RBA higher which in turn will keep the Aud supported. However, the Aud will be highly sensitive to Usd sentiment.
German ZEW survey is expect to see a further erosion of investors sentiment partially caused by the highly probable ECB hike, a strong euro and slowing German exports. A significant deviation from the expected -41.5 figure should cause some Eur selling.
The UK market will be watching CPI inflation. The April reading jumped sharply to 3.0% from 2.5% so a move higher (3.1%) is highly probable. This would trigger another letter penned by BoE King to the Chancellor and keep MPC members hawkish. Overall the evolving inflation story should it stay consistent to our base of trending higher will keep the Gbp supportive near term.
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