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亚洲市场—G8未提及外汇议题
今日汇评
由于G8公报未提及外汇，交易者从而认为交易将处于下跌趋势，因而美元在亚洲市场发展趋势较为混沌。欧元对美元一度跌至1.5400，但随后该日亚洲交易局势又发生变化，欧元对美元上升至1.5436。由于美元对日元回升至107.90，并有达到108.40的趋势，日元仍面临卖出压力。澳元对日元交易较不平稳，达到了101.80。日元和瑞士法郎息差交易本周将继续有良好表现，并对宏观交易环境产生巨大改变（降低的油料价格以及稳定的资本市场有助于风险胃口的增长）。
西德克萨斯州中质原油以及金价分别持续下跌至133.923bllhe768.13每盎司。亚洲资本市场交易处于向上趋势，欧洲期货市场交易高开，SMI指数引领全局发展。
与普遍预期一致，本周末G8财长会议未在会议公报中特别提及外汇。由于最近决策者们的转变，即开始使用口头干预，有些人推测本次在大阪举行的G8会议将会给财长们一个适时的讨论平台。然而，由于中央银行行长参与会议，一般外汇坪林还是对此前的推测持保留意见。公报未关注风险增长（特别是近几月以来的增长），高涨的能源价格所产生的负面影响导致“美国房地产价格进一步下跌，金融市场也将面临更大的负面压力”，以及“上扬的商品价格，尤其是油料和食品价格，将对全球稳定发展带来巨大挑战，也是经济脆弱的重要表现，并将增加全球通胀压力。”
公报短暂提及了美元发展，美国财政部财长Paulson在他的新闻发布会上，重申了对美元强劲发展的支持，“强势的美元使我们国家的利益所在”，他进一步说明良好的美国经济基础将最终体现于美元价格之中。
最初报道是爱尔兰否决了里斯本条约全民投票，但官方结果仍未发布。
第一季度Kiwi制造销售额上涨了0.2% q/q，与上年度第四季度的3.4% q/q涨幅放缓颇多。数据继续显示新西兰经济仍处于减速趋势，我们预期新西兰联储9月初将施行降息。新西兰元仍然较为平稳，尽管如此，我们预计愈加明显的经济放缓将使新西兰元对美元这一货币对倍受压力，并在短期内达到0.7400。
欧洲区域市场正关注欧元区CPI最终评估结果的发布。由于能源、食物成本以及第二轮压力取心的影响（正常数据水平是2.0%以下），我们预期在最终发布期限前，将会出现一次微弱的上扬。尽管欧元对美元无力长久保持1.5400 lvl以下压力取心，我们依旧看空，认为将下跌至支撑位1.5280。
欧元对美元――
该货币对已非常接近重要支撑点。现在汇率接近1.5303-1.5285。若达到后者水平（我的意思是如果今日收盘价低于后者），将有可能进一步下跌，在跌至支撑位1.5415以下后，最少降至1.4935。今日，1.5620和1.5735前，出现了位于1.5485和1.5587的阻力位。表明将有可能焕发生机，上涨至1.5819和1.5844。
美元对日元――
将极有可能全力反弹108.60。向上可能会达到114.66并且甚至可能达到114.66。支撑位方面，支撑点106.43-56若能守住，将逐步往下发展至104.40， 103.87和103.05。继续往下的话，主要支撑点将在102.57-61。如果这一点被突破，将有可能全力下探100.83，100.03。
英镑对美元――
从11月份开始的持续熊市行情将有潜力达到1.8800，但也只是个试探性的下跌。我们看到现在的低点1.9409，也有可能持续下跌至1.9360。阻力位方面，第一阻力位位于1.9670，进而会达到1.9800以及在1.9847-52到达一个较强的阻力区域。在突破此区域后，1.9890-1.9900将重置基点在1.9965，之后将冲击2.0000-2.0030。
Asian Session - G8 Fails to Mention FX
Market Brief
Usd was mixed in the Asian session as the G8 communiqué failed to mention FX and traders pairing down bets. EurUsd fell below 1.5400 before trending up to 1.5436 as the Asian trading day evolved. Jpy continued to come under selling pressure as UsdJpy rallied off 107.90 supports and headed to 108.40 while AudJpy in choppy action traded to 101.80. Jpy & Chf funded carry trades should continue to outperform this week baring any significant change in the macro environment (lower oil prices and firm equity markets helping risk appetite).
Crude wti & gold prices continue to pull back to 133.93bll and 867.13oz. Asian equities are trading up and European futures are pointing to higher open with the SMI index leading the way.
As was generally expected at this weekends G8 finance minister meeting made no specific mention to FX in its statement. Given the recent shift in policymakers use of verbal intervention there was some speculation that the meeting in Osaka would give ministers a timely platform. However, typically FX comments are reserved for when Central Bankers are in attendance. The communiqué did focus on the risks to growth (which have improved in recent moths) and the negative effects of higher energy prices stating “further declines in housing prices in the United States and greater strains in the financial markets may adversely affect the global outlook” and "elevated commodity prices, especially of oil and food, pose a serious challenge to stable growth worldwide, have serious implications for the most vulnerable and may increase global inflationary pressure."
While the communiqué stop short of a specific reference to the greenback, in his press conference US Trsy Sec. Paulson reiterated support for the strong USD, "A strong dollar is in our nation's interest," he stated, adding that better US economic fundamentals will eventually be priced in the USD.
Initial reports have Ireland rejecting the referendum on the Lisbon treaty but the official results have yet to be released.
Kiwi manufacturing sales for q1, rose by 0.2% q/q, a considerable slowdown from 3.4% q/q in q4. The data continues to reinforce there is an economic slowdown in New Zealand and we expect the RBNZ begin cutting rates as early as September. Nzd was stable today, however we expect mounting evidence of economic erosion will weigh on the NzdUsd and are looking for 0.7400 near term.
In the European session markets will be watching the final estimate of eurozone CPI. We are expected a slight pickup in headline due to energy and food cost and second round effects to pressure core (which has been stable at less then 2.0%). Despite the EurUsd inability hold below the 1.5400 lvl for any significant time our bearish view is intact and opens the way to 1.5280 support.
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