|
今日汇评
由于缺少实时数据，交易平淡，美元在亚洲市场普遍较为稳定。欧元对美元从1.5410反弹至1.5480，美元对日元受限于108.00至107.70之间，美元对新西兰元交易价从0.7490上升至0.7529，美元对较远交易者从1.0217上升至1.0247。黄金价格小幅回返至872.85点，西德克萨斯中质原油价格上升至136.60。美国股市收盘平稳，亚洲市场目前仍然较为混乱。欧洲股市发展较为沉稳，开盘走高，DAX指数引领全局发展。
与普遍预期一致，日本央行维持了原利率0.50%不变。对通胀的担忧在日本日益增长，所以我们听说白川将把关注点从放缓的经济前景转移至通胀（尽管CPI放缓至0.9%，预期五月份该指数还是会升至1.4%），这一点非常有趣。四月工业生产指数y/y缓慢上升了1.9% 及1.8% exp（但仍然是经济放缓的信号），但消费者信心指数降低到34.1 vs. 35.0 exp.，是自2001年12月以来的最低水平。尽管VIX指数有所上涨，日本息差交易仍然受到强硬的CB通胀论调影响。八国会谈今日在大阪开始，我们预期今日将听到官员们对于通胀以及外汇的评论。
四月新西兰零售业指数上升.0% 与 0.4% exp，主要因素是8.1%的汽车销售量上升。由于上涨的食品及油料价格损耗着人们的收入，房市处于下滑趋势以及劳动力市场疲软，消费者压力倍增，因而我们预期这一预料之外的上升只是昙花一现。
我们预期发布的欧元区劳动力市场数据将混合着微小的就业率上升以及收入提升信息。最近几个月，就业率已经停止下滑，就业意向也出现了上升趋势。我们预计发布数据当日，欧元将会面临一定压力。
美元市场最关键的将是CPI数据的发布。核心驱动力将是汽车油料这一元素，人们预计油料数据将被列入醒目的新闻大字标题。此外，U. Mich调查将帮助衡量国会财政刺激是否对改善市场情绪起到了帮助作用，以及是否其它如房地产市场以及汽油价格等因素仍然倍受关注。
欧元对美元――
该货币对已非常接近一个重要支撑点。现在汇率接近1.5365，并且很显然下探至1.5285。有可能一路下滑至1.5365和1.5285。若达到后者水平（我的意思是如果今日收盘价低于后者），将有可能进一步下跌，最少降至1.4935。今日，1.5735, 1.5819 and 1.5844前出现了位于1.5587的阻力位。
美元对日元――
将极有可能全力反弹108.60。支撑位方面，支撑点106.43-56若能守住，将逐步往下发展至104.40， 103.87和103.05。继续往下的话，主要支撑点将在102.57-61。如果这一点被突破，将有可能全力下探100.83，100.03。
英镑对美元――
从11月份开始的持续熊市行情将有潜力达到1.8800，但也只是个试探性的下跌。我们看到现在的低点1.9433，也有可能持续下跌至1.9360。阻力位方面，第一阻力位位于1.9670，进而会达到1.9800以及在1.9847-52到达一个较强的阻力区域。在突破此区域后，1.9890-1.9900将重置基点在1.9965，之后将冲击2.0000-2.0030
Market Brief
Usd was broadly stable in Asian session as a lack of real data kept trading light. EurUsd was range-bound from 1.5410 to 1.5480 while the UsdJpy was constricted to 108.00 to 107.70 range. UsdNzd traded from 0.7490 to 0.7529 and UsdCad traded from 1.0217 to 1.0247. Gold recover slightly to 872.85spot and oil WTI rose to 136.60. US stock markets closed in the green and Asian markets are currently mixed. European stock markets are poised to open higher with the DAX leading the way.
In Japan the BoJ held rates at 0.50% as was universally expected. Inflation fears have increased in Japan so it will be interesting to hear if Shirakawa will shift its focus from sagging economic outlook to inflation (however CPI slowed to 0.9% but is expect to accelerate to 1.4% in May). Industrial production for April y/y tick up softly to 1.9% vs. 1.8% exp (but still a sign of a weak economy), while consumer confidence fell to 34.1 vs. 35.0 exp. - Lowest level since December 2001. Despite the rising VIX Jpy funded carry trades continue to perform on the back of hawkish CB inflation rhetoric. The G8 talks begin today in Osaka and we expect to hear official comment on inflation and FX throughout the day.
New Zealand Retail sales April m/m rose by 1.0% vs. 0.4% exp primarily due to an 8.1% spike in car sales. We expect this unexpected jump to be a one off as higher food and fuel prices wear away incomes and housing decline and softening labor market increase pressure on the consumer.
In the euro-zone the labor market data is expect to show a concerning combo of weak employment growth and increasing wages. Employment has stopped falling in recent months and employment intentions have also tick upwards. We expect the data to weigh on the Euro intraday.
In the US market the key release will be may CPI. The core driver will be motor fuel component which is expected to add significantly to headline. In addition, University of Michigan survey will help measure whether congress fiscal stimulate has helped improved sentiment or have other factors such as the housing market and gasoline prices continued to cause concern.
|
