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亚洲市场--澳大利亚就业数据下跌
今日汇评
由于投机者们认为稳定的美国经济将使得美联储关注反通货膨胀，美元在亚洲市场走强。昨天发布的褐皮书指出尽管美国经济活动仍然处于疲软状态，还是存在一些缓慢增长的迹象。欧元对美元从1.5560下滑至1.5460，英镑对美元从1.9660放缓至1.9560。当日交易中，美元对日元上升至107.38，但欧元对日元卖出价下跌至165.90。澳大利亚发布下跌的就业数据使得澳元对美元急剧下跌，从0.9470下跌至0.9380。
周三对美国股票市场来说是颇为不易的一天，指数遭遇一致卖出，百分之九十的板块收盘时走低。由于关注通胀，未来商品价格上涨，备受打击的股票以及类似情绪的存在，除能源板块(+0.8%)外，96%的股票出现下跌。由于盘存报告显示存货减少，原油价格上涨超过$5，达到$137。同时由于关注货品供应，其它商品也出现了价格的上涨。意料之中，亚洲市场今晨走低，日经指数下跌2.1%，恒生指数下跌2.2%，MSCI A-P指数下跌2.6%。与相应的欧洲及美国一样，亚洲股票出现了三个月以来最大的跌价。
美国官方政策市场依然持续强硬语词。美联储副主席Kohn长期通胀预期的产生将成为一个重大问题，美联储Bullard评论说美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）应当在今年内控制住通货膨胀。上述评论继续为美元起到了支撑作用。
澳大利亚就业指数下跌了-19.7k与13.5k exp （与年度前4个月数据产生显著差距）。认为澳洲联邦储备银行（RBA）短期内将提高利率以及削减利息差异的推测将给澳元带来一定压力（即使商品价格处于支持性水平）。
尽管成员并未到齐，日本央行还是开始了为期两天的货币政策会议。我们预期央行会将利率平稳保持在0.50%，并且相信由于日益增长的对通胀的担忧，会议将继续强调经济发展的下跌风险。尽管风险规避略见成效，我们并不相信在所面临的艰难宏观条件下，日本经济增长势力能够持续。
欧洲市场受关注点是欧元区工业生产指数。预期将会出现小幅上涨，但预计此上涨过程将会非常短暂。变得越发明了的是，强势的欧元和全球疲软在该区域内将产生碰撞。制造业采购经理人指数和Ec工业景气指标均处于较低水平，与工业产品日渐收紧的关系将将对指数产生巨大压力。
欧元对美元――
现在汇率低至1.5441，并且很显然将继续走低，有可能一路下滑至1.5365和1.5285。若今日收盘低于后者，将陷入熊市行情，并且最少降至1.4935。今日，在高位处，1.5735, 1.5819 and 1.5844前出现了位于1.5587 和1.5620的微弱阻力位。
美元对日元――
将极有可能全力反弹108.60。支撑点106.43-56若能守住，将逐步往下发展至104.40， 103.87和103.05。继续往下的话，主要支撑点将在102.57-61。如果这一点被突破，将有可能全力下探100.83，100.03。
英镑对美元――
从11月份开始的持续熊市行情将有潜力达到1.8800，但也只是个试探性的下跌。我们看到现在的低点1.9462，也有可能持续下跌至1.9360。我们现在将有个回稳的过程。第一阻力位位于1.9670，进而会达到1.9800以及在1.9847-52到达一个较强的阻力区域。在突破此区域后，1.9890-1.9900将重置基点在1.9965，之后将冲击2.0000-2.0030。
Asian Session - Aud Employment Dips
Market Brief
Usd was stronger in the Asian session as speculation grows that a stable US economy will allow the Fed to focus on containing inflation. The beige book reported yesterday that while US economic activity remains weak, there are patches of slow growth. EurUsd slipped to 1.5460 from 1.5560 and GbpUsd eased to 1.9560 from 1.9660. Jpy was mixed, with UsdJpy trading up to 107.38, while EurJpy sold off, falling to its intraday support of 165.90. Weak data from Australia caused a sharp fall, with AudUsd dropping quickly to 0.9380 from 0.9470.
Wednesday was a tough day for US equity markets, with the indices suffering concerted selling and nine of the ten sectors closing lower. Apart from Energy (+0.8%), 96% of stocks moved lower, as inflation concerns and further rises in commodity prices hammered stocks and sentiment alike. Crude rose over $5, to $137, as the inventory report showed a decline in stocks, while other commodities also jumped on supply concerns. Asian markets are unsurprisingly lower this morning, with the Nikkei down 2.1%, the Hang Seng down 2.2% and the MSCI A-P down 2.6%. Asian stocks followed their European and US counterparts, posting their biggest sell-off in three months.
US official policy makers continued with the hawkish rhetoric. The Fed's Vice Chair Kohn warned that a rise in long term inflation expectations would be a problem, while the Fed's Bullard commented that the FOMC need to get inflation under control this year. Both comments continued to give support to the Usd.
In Australia, employment fell by -19.7k vs. 13.5k exp (a significant departure from the first 4 months of the year). The softer reading dampened speculation that the RBA will increase rates near term, while erosion of the interest rate differential will continue to put pressure on the Aud (even while commodities prices stay supportive).
The BoJ started its two day monetary policy meeting despite still not having a full board. We expect the central bank to hold rates steady at 0.50% and believe they will continue to emphasize downward risk to growth over rising inflation fears. While risk aversion has picked up slightly, we don't believe any Jpy strength will be lasting, based on the rough macro conditions Japan is facing.
In the European session, markets will be watching euro-zone industrial production. A slight pickup is expected, however the increase should be short lived. Its becoming clearer that a strong Euro and global slowdown are beginning to take there toll on the sector. Both manufacturing PMI and Ec industrial sentiment indicators are at low levels, and a tight relationship with industrial products will weigh on the data.
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