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今日汇评
由于美国财政政策决策人的评论失去了原有的舆论导向作用，美元走势和亚洲市场其他指数同步前行。欧元对美元，突破1.5440的支撑点，直冲1.5500。美元对日元，突破107.50 的阻力位，直达 107.76。随着新西兰元对美元从0.7520稳步增长至0.7548，美元对加拿大元从1.0246.滑落至1.0217，日用品指数有所增长。伴随着日元的走低和美国股市的低迷，欧元对日元，很轻易到达了166.94，澳元对日元，非常轻松的从101.80的阻力上升至101.91。
星期二的股市大势普遍低迷，只有道琼斯指数略有上涨。大量的抛售源于原材料和能源产品的价格的下跌预期。亚洲市场在早市高开，美元的强势有利于产品的出口。日本的银行类股票由于经纪人的不利消息的报道，连续2天，走势低迷。由于原油价格的跌落，资源型的股票普遍走低。
上证指数第一次跌落3,000点，从4月份以来，外界都在关注中国政府压制通货膨胀的行动措施。原油价格再次走低，随着美元牛市的行情，IEA预测，市场对于石油的需求量将保持在最低的增长水平，08年7月的原油合同价跌了$3.04 ，收市于$131.31。黄金价格被强势的美元和疲软的油价所压制，08年8月的合同价降了$26.90，跌至 $871.20。08年7月的银价下跌了57.5，降至 $16.635。
出乎大家所料，加拿大银行将利率维持在3.00%的水平，这说明，货币政策在适当的在适应新的环境。正如全球经济的趋势一样，通胀预期是高风险的，加拿大的央行预计本国的通胀率将转为上升的趋势。值得庆幸的是，利率将继续保持不变，（CPI可能增长3.0%）。加拿大元突破阻力位， 之后将可能下探至0.9900的支撑点。
今天早上，日本公布了近期的财富数据。最重要的数据是，GDP第一季度的增长将上涨1.0%（按年计算的将达到4.0% ，对比于之前的3.8%）。然而，利好消息丝毫不能扭转日元的颓势，投资者们对日本经济的预期全是不看好的。而且，近期生产量的大幅增长也将压制日元的增值潜力。
在澳大利亚，Westpac’s 消费者信心指数跌落到-5.6%，相比于之前的2.7%。这一数据暂时削弱了澳元走势，投资者都在关注澳洲联储Stevens在星期五的演讲，预期这将提高利率的预期（近期市场价格高达2 25bp）。
英国的经济数据将吸引欧洲市场投资者的强烈关注。失业率将保持稳定。4月份的数据比3月份的有所增加。
16.30gmt – 欧洲央行的Stark 评论
16.30gmt – 美联储的 Kohn & Fischer 评论
18.00gmt – 美联储的Bullard 评论
欧元对美元---
目前正处在1.5441的低位，之后极有可能全力下探至 1.5365 、1.5285。如果大盘收市于1.5365 、1.5285，我们可以预见熊市的走势将不可避免的下探到至少1.4935 以下。就今天的走势，在1.5735, 1.5819 ，1.5844之前有个小的阻力位1.5620。
美元对日元--
将有可能全力反弹至108.60。 作为支撑点，106.43如果没有被守住， 104.40 、103.87 之后，将继续下探至103.05. 下方的主要支撑点在102.57-61 。如果这点被突破，将有可能全力下探至100.83、100.03。
英镑对美元--
从11月份至今的熊市行情有可能到达1.8800，但可能只是个试探性的下跌。我们可以看到，昨天收盘于1.9462的低点，之后继续下探到1.9360。昨天的低迷走势将会在今天有个扭转。 看空的话, 第一个支撑点在1.97451前面的1.9638-66 ，阻力区域位于1.9847-52.。看多的话，1.9890-1.9900将重新攀高至 1.9965，接下来就是2.0000-2.0030。
Market Brief
Usd was mixed Asian session as the US policy makers comments faded into the background. EurUsd trended off the 1.5440 support level moving back towards 1.5500 while UsdJpy broke through the 107.50 resistance to 107.76. Commodity bloc gained slightly asNzdUsd moved cautiously to 0.7548 from 0.7520 and the UsdCad slid to 1.0217 from 1.0246. With continued weakness in the Jpy and US equity markets only slightly lower, carry trades outperformed with EurJpy moving easily to 166.94 while AudJpy had little trouble pushing above 101.80 resistance to 101.91.
Stocks were mostly weaker on Tuesday, with only the Dow managing to close in positive territory. The sell off was led by raw-materials and energy producers as the possibility of higher rates sent oil prices lower. Asian markets were higher this morning, rebounding after early declines as a stronger dollar helped exporters. In Japan, bank stocks fell following a negative broker report, and property stocks slid for the 2nd straight day. Regionally, resource stocks traded broadly lower after crude-oil prices fell in overnight trading. Before climbing back above it, the Shanghai Composite slipped below 3,000 for the first time since April on concerns the govt will step up measures to tame inflation. Oil prices came under pressure for a second straight session, dampened by the bullish tone in the greenback and the IEA's forecast that world oil demand will rise at the slowest pace in six years during 2008; the Jul '08 contract down $3.04 to $131.31.Gold prices were pressured by the stronger dollar and softer oil prices; the most active Aug '08 contract down $26.90 to $871.20. Jul '08 silver -57.5 ¢ at $16.635/oz.
In a surprise move the Bank of Canada held rates at 3.00% and comments that monetary policy was “appropriately accommodative”. As is the global trend it was risks to inflation outlook which the central bank believes to have shifted to the upside. With rates expect to stay unchanged for the near futures (CPI likely peak at 3.0%) we expect to the Cad spike briefly above channel resistance before to trend down roughly to 0.9900 support.
In Japan a wealth of data was released this morning. Most importantly was the second estimate for GDP q1 which was revised up to 1.0% q/q (annualized GDP 4.0% vs. 3.8% exp) as capex was better than expected. However, the positive data did little to prevent the Jpy selling as the overall sentiment on the Japanese economic outlook is decidedly bearish. In addition the recent massive upswing in yields will undercut any Jpy potential.
In Australia Westpac’s consumer confidence sentiment index fell to -5.6% vs. 2.7% prior reading. The data briefly weakened the Aud however the market will be especially keen on RBA Governor Stevens' speech on Friday believing that it will help them guild interest rate expectations (market are currently pricing in almost 2 25bp hike in 2008).
Data from the UK will capture the markets attention in European session. Unemployment rate is expect to stay stable whoever with claimant count on the rise the risk to labor is toward the upside. April Trade data is expected to widen reversing Marches narrowing.
16.30gmt - ECB's Stark speaks
16.30gmt - Fed's Kohn & Fischer speak
18.00gmt - Fed's Bullard speaks
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