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亚洲市场--美元继续走高
今日汇评
在亚洲市场，由于风险回避支撑美元积累，因而除日元外，美元继续较十大工业国其它币种走强。轻微震荡引发了市场对于降低隔夜交易风险的关注。首先是高涨的原油价格最终使得全球经济发展备受压力，其二，新发布的美证交会决议提高了投资公司披露要求。由于市场对欧洲央行的定位，以及潜在的经济缓慢发展趋势，使得欧元兑美元指数轻易滑落到1.5286。
上涨的油料价格虽使能源股获利，但还是警示投资者们，这将给消费者和整体经济带来的影响。由此，亚洲股市交易今晨低开。金融和电力需求拖垮了东京。油料价格摆脱了早前存货招致的障碍，在下午的交易中继续走高，并创造历史新高。由于美元持续两个月来较欧元强势，粉碎了美国柴油库存下降的传闻，原油期货价格周四达到了$123每桶，预期08年6月将平稳上升$1.69，达到$123.52，从历史最高记录回落。美国6月份原油价格将在格林威治时间0228上涨两美分，达到$123.55每桶，摆脱之前达到$123.93的历史高价。伦敦不伦特原油价格上涨了5美分，达到$122.37每桶。由于美元胜过主要竞争对手，黄金价格收市时降低；2008年6月合约价格降低$6.50，达到$871.20。2008年7月白银降格将变动16.5 ¢，达到$16.695每盎司。
新西兰发布的就业数据比市场预期相差悬殊。就业率降低了q/q -1.3 vs. -0.1% exp，为19年来的最大降幅，并导致纽元兑美元指数从0.7820急剧下跌至0.7710。由于发布的数据显示疲软，新西兰央行将面临经济发展缓慢的压力，我们可以将此看待为其将在2008年第三季度降息的信号。潜在的降息周期将使纽约一定程度上出现上升。相反地，澳大利亚失业情况报告打破了所有人的预期，失业人数上升了25，400位。
欧洲交易日的焦点在于英国央行和欧洲央行将公布的利率政策。市场广泛期待他们分别保持利率平稳，在5.00%和4.00%水平。英国央行货币政策委员会后通胀率将继续上升。最近，关注短期内通胀风险的成员与那些认为货币政策应该关注晦暗的发展前景的成员间分歧不断增大。很有趣的是，英国央行今日仅有很小的一部分经济学家希望降低利率，而绝大多数经济学家希望在6月份再降低利率。由此产生一个非常突出的问题，为什么不是现在就降低利率，市场发射出的一个简单信号是英国央行仍然在严肃地关注通胀问题。
欧洲央行今日召开会议，公布利率决议，但似乎不太可能将现在的4%利率下调，作此推断的原因在于虽然通胀仍然是欧洲央行的主要关注点，但持久以来的迹象表明欧洲区域经济发展缓慢，所以可能会在不远的六月进行利率下调。伴随欧元下跌趋势，金融时报发表文章表示，美国和欧洲都希望美元走强，超过欧元。欧洲央行行长Trichet的新闻发布会将会被密切关注利率决议的发布，寻找未来是否有降息的可能线索。我们相信除非通胀率从3.6%下降至3.3%，否则虽然这些指数水平尚还出在欧洲央行舒适区，Trichet也不太可能改变他的强硬口吻。
我们并不期待自己的基础观点能够给当前的外汇行情带来任何实质性变化，但由于美元的迅速上涨我们还是能够看到些许获利机会。
欧元兑美元
处于下行趋势，该货币对在1.5280将面临压力，一旦突破，将可能下探至1.5145和1.4935。 阻力位方面，走势将是1.5410， 1.5516进而达到1.5644。以1.5644为突破口，释放一些压力，上升至1.5705-10。在这一区域之上，1.5860和1.5935-70将面临危险。
美元兑日元
显示出上升趋势。但指标下边界未定。以105.70高开，探至105.50-90。在这之上，有可能冲至108.60。支撑位方面，分别在10400和103.54-103.22获得支撑。
英镑兑美元
下跌已突破1.9600，一旦达到1.9503位，指数有望试探性上行至1.9337-63。下跌方面，自从11月以来有潜力下探至1.8800，甚至继续下行。我们相信在目前的压力下，指数有可能回至1.9635，1.9715，1.9880-90和1.9965。在这之上，2.0030-60有可能将面临危险。
黄金
尽管从长远来看，黄金交易风险处于下降趋势，之前几日我们还是观察到逆势反弹趋势。阻力位方面，走势讲师883.00，895.50-896.60和925.50-928.85。支撑位方面，走势为859.50和845.65。一旦达到845.60，在785.70位停留后将可能下跌至773.00。但我认为后者仍有待时间考证。
Asian Session - Usd Continues to Surge Higher
Market Brief
Usd continued its strong rally against the G10 in Asian session, with the exception of the Jpy, as risk aversion supported Usd. Slight cracks in the system seem to be causing concern with risk reduction being the dominante feature overnight . First is the high crude prices which will eventually put pressure on global growth and second was the new SEC plan to increase the disclosures requirements for investment firms. EurUsd slid with no resistance to 1.5286 as market position themselves for the ECB announcement and the expectation that the emphasis will be on the slowing growth pace.
Asian stocks traded lower this morning as higher oil prices alarmed investors about the impact upon consumers and the overall economy, though resource stocks benefited. The bad performance of financials and power generators dragged Tokyo down. Oil prices marked yet another record high after shaking off an early inventory-induced pullback to surge higher in afternoon trading; the Jun '08 contract was up $1.69 to $123.53. Oil futures were steady over $123 a barrel on Thursday, pulling back from a record high as the dollar's rise to a two-month high against the euro offset news of falling U.S. diesel stockpiles. U.S. crude for June was up 2 cents at $123.55 a barrel by 0228 GMT, off the record of $123.93 which was reached earlier. London Brent crude was up 5 cents at $122.37 a barrel. Gold closed lower as the dollar gained versus the major rivals; the most active Jun '08 contract was down $6.50 to $871.20. Jul '08 silver was at $16.695/oz
In New Zealand employment data printed significantly worse then the market had anticipated. Employment declined q/q -1.3 vs. -0.1% exp, largest decline in 19 years which triggered NzdUsd crash from 0.7820 to 0.7710. With data printing on the soft side these day the RBNZ will be under pressure to address the slowing growth and we could start to here signal of a cut as early as q3 2008. This potential rate cutting cycle will keep any NZD upside limited. In contrast, The Australian jobless report beat all expectations as employment rose by 25,400 and this saw AUD rise to .9430 after it had fallen to .9350 earlier in the session on the stronger U.S. currency.
The focus of the European trading day will clearly be the BoE and ECB rate decision. Both are widely expected to hold rates steady at 5.00% and 4.00% respectively. In the UK inflation will trump growth at this MPC meeting. Recent disagreement has amplified between members on near term inflation risk verse those members who believe monetary policy should focus on weakening growth prospects. Interestingly enough while only a very slim number of economists expect a cut from the BoE today, a wide majority are expecting a cut in June. So the obvious question is why not just cut today ? The simple answer is that by acting this way the BoE is signaling to the market that she is still seriously concerned about inflation.
The ECB meet today to set interest rate policy. It is unlikely to lower rates from the 4% where they currently stand as inflation is still their main concern but with continuing indications that the Eurozone economy is seeing slower growth, it’s not a distant hope that rates could be reduced in June. Added to the mix for the Euro fall is an article in the Financial Times saying that both the United States and Europe want to see the Dollar strengthen against the Euro. ECB President Trichet press conference will be monitored closely after the rate announcement for any future rate cutting clues. We beleive its unlikely that Trichet will alter his hawkish tone in spite of the fact that inflation fell to 3.3% from 3.6%. However theses levels are still well above the ECBs comfort zone.
We don’t expect, given our base scenario, that we should see any material change in current FX levels however we could see some minor profit taking due to rapid appreciation of Usd. |
