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亚洲市场——澳联储将汇率保持在7.25%
今日汇评
美元在亚洲市场表现收到制约，原因是市场缺乏消息面的支撑，因而美元走势并不明朗。欧元兑美元开盘时上涨至1.5535，之后随着欧洲央行行长特里谢重申他对于欧元区仍存在高通胀风险的警告，指数出现反转收阴。澳联储在保持汇率稳定之后出乎意料地保持中立，致使澳元势头出现衰减。澳元兑美元急剧下跌至0.9423，并且在卖盘的压力下还有继续下跌的可能。东京市场因假期休市，因而市场交易平淡。美联储主席伯南克昨夜发表评论称，持续上升的房贷抵押赎回权的取消将推动房屋价格进一步下降，这一消息对美元造成了打击。
英国周一休市，英镑表现平淡。英镑在1.9735区域附近交易，而兑欧元则从0.7852上升至0.7870，对比上周五的低点0.7765有了明显的上升。布朗首相身上有着巨大的压力去使用自己的个人名望对英国公众施加影响，并恢复在上周本地选举中惨败的执政党工党的信心。
昨天美国市场表现平静，当日收盘微跌。10个板块中仅有两个出现上涨，分别是原料（+1.5%）和能源（+1.0%），这也是这两个板块本年唯一的上涨。今天市场的焦点是微软（-0.5%）与雅虎（-15.0%）收购案的失败。在尼日利亚石油生产中断的背景下石油价格收盘涨到接近120美元。伴随美元走软和石油价格上涨到每桶120美元，能源公司股票出现上涨，而因为其它商品价格上涨，矿业类股也出现上涨。随着油价上涨，金价再次出现上升；交易最为活跃的08年6月合同涨到了874.10美元，上涨了16.10美元。亚洲股市出现了三日内的首次下跌，恒生指数持平，MSCI A-P微跌。伴随美元交易，金融公司股票下跌，因为投资者担心出现更多的亏损。利好消息有小麦产量终于上升，原因是由于农业条件改善，澳大利亚小麦产量今年可能会翻番。
澳联储将利率保持在7.25%符合人们普遍的预期，但奇怪的是市场却反应平平。市场最近一直以近期内利率可能提升来定价，但这一消息的公布却未能引起市场大的波动。澳联储注意到了价格压力正在增加，但却把减缓国内市场需求作为抑制通胀的手段。
今天没有什么数据公布，但焦点在于本周晚些时候欧洲央行和美国银行将公布的利率政策。
欧元兑美元——
焦点转到下行方面。以1.5360低开，随后试探性下探至1.5340，接着明确下跌趋势，探至1.5280, 1.5145和 1.4935。支撑位方面，以1.5644为突破口，释放一些压力，上升至1.5705-10。在这一区域之上，有望升至1.5860 和1.5935-70。
美元兑日元——
显示出上升趋势。以105.70高开，探至105.50-90。在这之上，有可能冲至108.60。支撑位方面，分别在104.55，104.20 和103.54-103.22获得支撑。
英镑兑美元——
最近的波动看来像是调整（接连多日的震荡起落），这也显示了主导趋势仍然是下跌。目前支撑位在1.9600，以此为突破口，指数有望上行至1.9337-63.下跌方面，自从11月以来有潜力下探至1.8800，甚至继续下行。我们相信在目前的压力下，指数有可能回至1.9880-90和1.9965。在这之上，2.0030-60有可能将面临突破。
Market Brief
Usd was range bound in Asia session as market lacked new information to stimulate it in any real direction. EurUsd trended upwards to the 1.5535 level in early trading after ECB President Trichet reiterated his warning of the high inflation risks that still exist in the Eurozone but reversed earlier gains as the session progressed. The Australian dollar's strength waned as the RBA unexpectedly maintained its neutral bias after holding rates steady. AudUsd fell sharply to 0.9423 and continued to come under selling pressure. Trading continued to be light as the holiday season was still in full swing with Tokyo closed. Last night's comments from the Fed Chairman Bernanke that rising mortgage foreclosures may push home prices down further hit the Dollar.
Sterling was very quiet following the U.K. markets being closed on Monday. The Pound was trading around 1.9735 region while against the Euro it slipped to .7870 from .7852 and significantly higher from the low of .7765 area seen last Friday. There is considerable pressure building on Prime Minister Brown to turn around his own personal reputation with the British public and revive the Labour party’s confidence after a the hammering it took in last weeks local elections.
Yesterday US market were quiet as it closed down slightly on the day. Only two of the ten sectors moved higher: materials (+1.5%) and energy (+1.0%) , and theese were the only 2 higher on the year. The main story on the day was Microsoft (-0.5%) dropping its proposed enhanced bid for Yahoo (-15.0%) at $33. Oil prices closed higher near the $120 mark on the back of production disruptions in Nigeria and amid dollar weakness. As a result energy companies rose after crude hit $120 a barrel. Mining stocks were also higher, as other commodity prices rose. Gold ended higher in a second straight session as the crude prices rallied; the most active Jun '08 contract was up $16.10 to $874.10. Asian stocks declined for the first time in three days, with the Hang Seng was flat and the MSCI A-P down a little. Financial companies were lower following the US trading along with the fact that investors fear more write-downs. Positive news regarding wheat finally emerged, as Australia seems like it will double its harvest this year amidst imprving conditions in the farming industry.
The RBA held rates at 7.25%. This was widely expected but the markets were nevertheless surprised by the neutral stance the Bank seems to have taken. Markets have been pricing in another rate hike near term but the probability shifted slightly after yesterd'ay's statement. The RBA noted increasing price pressures but pointed to slowing domestic demand as a constraint of inflation.
There is little data out today but focus is on the interest rate decisions from ECB and BOE later in the week.
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