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亚洲市场——美元乐观情绪退潮
今日汇评
在亚洲市场美元开始走弱，因为市场对接下来一周的央行声明有所期待。英镑兑美元从1.9720升至1.9766，澳元兑美元则由0.9348反弹至0.9412。日元息差交易上周出现反转下跌行情，而欧元兑日圆以162.17开盘，高出标准值5点，澳元对日元更突破了先前的高点，又创出了99.01的高点。上周经济数据表现平淡，但美国银行，欧洲央行与RBA（10国集团之外的韩国与印度尼西亚）等都宣布了利率调整的决定，对市场产生了较大影响。
上周焦点都集中在美元，围绕经济数据和美联储政策的乐观情绪在增长。最引人注目的是NFP的20k温和衰退，而失业率下降至5.0%也出乎人们的意料。这些鼓舞人心的数据暂时性地增加了美联储6月保持利率不变的可能性，而且也在一定程度上增加了美元的强势。国际油价和商品价格停止上涨也为美元提供了支撑。但两个因素都存在明显的下行风险，美元的乐观情绪也许将会是极短暂的。首先如果前期数据会对市场产生影响的话，那么美国劳动力市场在近期内将会更加恶化，平均每月的衰退会超过100k，失业率也会升至5.4%，我们目前看到的经济衰退期的数据仍能体现出这些特征。其次油价与商品价格仍有清晰的上涨趋势。许多分析人士预测油价将升至每桶130美元，而中国市场对产品需求又极为旺盛，这些因素将推动美元继续下跌的趋势。
另一方面我们也注意到，IMMFX持仓情况显示投机客在各主要货币上正在将做空的美元抛出。CFTC报告转而对欧元兑美元做空，这是2005年以来第一次。这也支持了美元在近期内的强势，任何其他针对美元做多的建仓将对美元的价格产生极小的影响。
关于央行此次宣布的政策我们将在《央行每周总结》中有深度报道。
欧元兑美元——焦点集中在下行方面，但我们也能看到一些上涨。以1.5360低开，试探性下探至1.5360，后又继续跌至1.5280, 1.5145和1.4935。在支撑位方面，以1.5644为突破口将会释放一些压力，并上升至1.5705-10。在这一区域以上，1.5860 和1.5935-70将面临危险。
美元兑日元——呈现出上涨趋势。以105.70高开，在105.50-90区域内振荡。在这之上，可能探高至108.60。支撑位出现在104.55，104.20 和103.54-103.22.
英镑兑美元——最近的波动看来像是调整（接连多日的震荡起落），这也显示了主导趋势仍然是下跌。目前支撑位在1.9600，以此为突破口，指数有望上行至1.9337-63.下跌方面，自从11月以来有潜力下探至1.8800，甚至继续下行。我们相信在目前的压力下，指数有可能回至1.9880-90和1.9965。在这之上，2.0030-60有可能将面临突破。
Asian Session - Usd Falls
Market Brief
Usd was weaker in Asian session as the markets prepare for a big week in Central Bank announcements. GbpUsd trended up to 1.9766 from 1.9720 while AudUsd bounced off the 21-MA (0.9348) climbing to 0.9412. Jpy funded carry trades were able to reverse last weeks decline with the EurJpy opening above the 5 – MA (162.17) and AudJpy made higher-highs at 99.01. A light week for economic data but heavy on interest rate decisions with the BoE, ECB & RBA ( Korea & Indonesia outside the G10) all announcing.
Last week the focus was on the Usd and the growing sense of optimism around economic data and Fed policy. The highlight was the modest 20k decline in NFP and unexpected fall of unemployment rates to 5.0%. These encouraging signs have increased the probability (temporarily) that the Fed will hold rate in June and was partially the cause for current Usd strength. The easing in oil and commodity prices also gave the greenback support. However both factors have significant downside risks and Usd euphoria might prove short lived. First if history is any guide, then the US labor market could get much worse in the near term with average monthly decline of well over 100k and unemployment creeping up to 5.4%, data consistent with the recessionary number we currently see. Second are the oil and commodity prices which are staying soberly elevated. Many analysts are expecting oil price heading to the 130brl and with solid commodity demand from China these factors will keep the Usd rally contained.
On a side note IMM FX positioning showed speculators closing out of Usd short position in most currencies. The CFTC reports the shift to a net EurUsd short was the first time since 2005 so the recent usd strength was backed by trading positions and any additional position building in Usd favor will have only a minor effect on Usd pricing.
We will cover the Central Bank announcements in depth in our Central Bank Weekly Preview.
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