|
亚洲市场—日本央行维持0.50%利率不变
今日汇评
欧元兑美元在亚洲市场保持稳定而成交量萎缩，原因是投资者们在等待联邦公开市场操作委员会（FOMC）会议结果。美元兑日元在日元萎靡状态后一度重整旗鼓，达到104.21，但在上个交易日稍晚时候又回落至103.75。
在市场期待今天发布Q1GDP数据和联邦储备利率决定前，美国股市本周二收盘时，各股板块表现不一。纳斯达克小额获利，道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔500指数收盘时略微下降。十分之四的市场区域显示获利，而十分之四市场卖空，导致能源（-1.5%）和原材料（-3.1%）均出现下跌，这些都为美元获利奠定了一定基础。有一个忙碌的交易日后，Visa和万事达卡成为主要焦点，呈现迅猛上升趋势。由于胆固醇药物未获美国食品与药品监督管理署批准，默克公司成为今日主要负面焦点。由于房屋市场仍处困境，未来的房屋数据呈现负增长，今天的经济新闻显得极为惨淡。由于金融状况再度发生变化，Nikkei (-0.32 %) & HSI (-0.18%) 在前几个交易时段内陷入失落境地。花旗集团宣布将在亚洲市场大举拓展。尽管SAP未能实现2007年分析师们的期望，欧洲期货今天上午交易值略高于公平价值，平均值为CAC & SX5E (+ 7 Bps) 和 Dax ( +11 Bps)。无论如何，阿尔卡特今天上午发布的数据结果还是让人受到些许鼓舞的。
联邦基金期货利率小幅变动，市场80%人士预测将下降25bp，仅有20%的人士认为会保持现有水平。除引用联邦基金期货利率作为一项指标外，市场价格也显示多数市场参与者期待联邦储备局缓释周期接近尾声。今天联邦基金期货利率下降了25个基点，达到2.00%，同时我们相信市场对于美国经济伴随的风险和未来金融市场问题看得过于乐观。美国房屋市场持续恶化，经济数据显示消费者消费信心下跌（昨天研究机构Conference Board数据显示消费者消费信心指数下降至62.3），这些都会直接影响到近几周来日渐加剧的次贷危机问题。现在会议间隔从原来的6周改为8周，随后发表的声明竟提议暂停会议难免会让人产生误解，因为8周间隔与会议暂停状态几乎已经无异。昨天FT发表反映联邦储备委员会当前心态的相关文章显示委员会成员不认为“尾部风险”已得到明显缓解，“市场仍然非常脆弱，对于坏消息仍然难以应对”。8周内相当多的美国相关数据令市场和联邦储备委员会倍感失望。无论联邦储备委员会如何应对，作何言论，我们仍然期待在2008年可以再度降息，因为市场经济所体现的数据确实还处在让人十分担忧的境地。
联邦公开市场操作委员会（FOMC）会议结果公布前数小时，Q1 GDP暂估值将被发布。虽然消费者消费速率下降，消费者消费信心削弱以及就业指数下降都使得我们陷入困境，但还是有由于存货的原因产生急剧反弹的风险。正如盘中表现，我们相信GDP指数会成为名副其实的市场推动因素。若GDP指数能够出人意料地呈现上升趋势，我们相信在联邦储备委员会会议前美元一定会重振旗鼓。
在日本央行第一次会议中，主席Masaaki Shirakawa表示保持利率在0.50%，这一决定符合大众预期。中央银行同时还表示“日本经济缓慢发展主要起因：高涨的能源和原料价格”粉碎了市场会从衰退趋势走出来的预期。但更糟的是日本工业生产指数下降至-3.1% vs. -0.8% exp，这也是五年以来降幅最快的一次。如我们之前的报道所述，我们非常不看好日本经济和日元。
格林威治时间12：55 欧洲央行Trichet在德国亚琛发表讲话
欧元兑美元
在这一阶段，很难说是一次回调的开始还是仅仅对前期走势的修正，但不管怎么说，压力主要在下行方面。以1.5510为突破点，指数试探性的跌至1.5341。相信在目前的压力位1.5710，1.5775和1.5860将会阻止指数的上涨，但如果突破这一阻力位，则大盘会上冲至1.6000和1.6020。
美元兑日元
这一货币对仍处于上升修正趋势。以104.83点高开，收盘于104.95。盘中曾试探性升至105.50-90.若突破这一点，这很有可能上冲至108.60。在支撑位方面，第一低位是103.90，随后是103.22和102.65. 这一位置若能保持，这一货币对可能会呈现上升走势，但如果突破则将可能继续跌至100.83甚至100.03。
英镑兑美元
最近市场的表现可被视为对前期走势的修正与弥补（接连几日的震荡整理），也预示着市场的主流趋势还是下跌。现在的支撑位位于1.9600，若突破此位置，接下来将可能试探性升至1.9337-63。自去年11月开始的行情下跌情形将达到1.8800但可能下降的过程会显得颠簸不平。要缓解目前的压力位，该货币对必须从1.9770退回至1.9880-90和1.9965。 在此之上，2.0030-60将再度面临风险。
Market Brief
EurUsd was stuck in a tight range in Asian session as traders await the FOMC. UsdJpy rallied on the weak Japanese data to 104.21 but pulled back to 103.75 in late day trading.
US stocks closed mixed once again on Tuesday, ahead of the Q1 GDP data and the Federal Reserve rate decision expected today. The NASDAQ managed small gains, while the DJIA and the S&P500 closed slightly lower. Four of the ten sectors posted gains while six others sold off, led by Energy (-1.5%) and Materials (-3.1%), both of which saw profit-taking as the dollar gained ground. On another busy day of results, the headliners were Visa and MasterCard, both strongly up on the back of results. Merck was the main negative headline of the day, as the company reported that a cholesterol drug was unexpectedly denied approval by the FDA. The economic news on the day was poor as the housing market remains in a rut with further spurt of negative housing data. The Nikkei declined a little (-0.32 %) & the HSI (-0.18%) lost some grounds during in the last trading hours mostly because of finincials. It appears that Citigroup's announcement panned out over Asian markets dragging their shares down.European Futures are trading slighlty above fair value this morning, on average CAC & SX5E (+ 7 Bps) & Dax ( +11 Bps), despite the SAP missed analyst's expectations for 2007. This being said Alcatel posted some encouraging results this morning.
Fed Fund Futures shifted slightly with up to 80% of the market predicting a 25bp cut with now only 20% looking for a hold. In addition the Fed fund futures, suggest that most market participants expect the Fed to end their easing cycle. While we are in the 25bp to 2.00% camp today, we also believe that the market has become too complacent regarding the risks to the US economy and further financial market problems. In the US the housing market continues to deteriorate while the economic data, specifically the consumer confidence, remains very soft (yesterday Conference Board slipped to 62.3). This could directly effect the mortgage credit problem which seem to be accelerating in recent weeks. With eight weeks pause, instead of the normal 6 weeks seperating the meetings, it is possible that the accompanying statement could be misleading since 8 weeks is almost the same as a state furlough. Yesterday the FT in analysing the Fed's mindset suggested that members don’t see “tail risk” falling significantly and that “markets are still fragile and vulnerable to bad news”.This is very true since in the eight weeks to come there are lots of US data which are expected to disappoint the market and the Fed. Whatever the Fed does and says today we expect additional cuts in 2008 as economic data continues to point towards negative appraisals.
Just hours before the FOMC announcement provisional estimates for Q1 GDP will be released. There are risks of a sharp rebound due to contribution from inventories, however slowing consumer spending, weak consumer confidence and declining job figures have us leaning to the weak side. As an intraday play we believe the GDP figures could be the real market mover. Should the figure surprise and point to the upside we should see a strong Usd rally before the Fed's meeting.
In this first meeting as BoJ Chairman Masaaki Shirakawa kept rates on hold at 0.50% as was widely expected. The central Bank also noted “Japan's economic growth is slowing mainly due to the effects of high energy and material prices”. This is cutting its growth forecast amid concerns of a recession. But to make matters worse, Japan's Industrial production fell to -3.1% vs. -0.8% exp which was the fastest decline in 5 years. As we have stated in previous reports we are very bearish on the Japanese economy and the Jpy.
12.55gmt - ECB’s Trichet Speaks in Aachen, Germany
|
