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亚洲市场——美元成交量萎缩，汇率保持稳定
今日汇评
美元在亚洲市场保持稳定而成交量萎缩，原因是投资者们期望在本周三联邦公开市场操作委员会（FOMC）召开之前保持警惕，不会轻易入市。资产范畴内的低成交量并不令人惊讶，这是因为美联储即将发表的会议纪要之重要性不言而喻，同时又伴随着巨大的不确定性。市场期待着美联储会宣布将利率下调25个基点，但投机性正在增长，人们猜测事实上美联储会保持稳定的利率，时刻准备着，一旦有更多重要的数据出现，立刻作出行动。美元兑日元涨至近两年的最高点，并且在今晨市场的卖盘之后，有能力在后市创出新高。
美国股市收盘，各股版块表现不一。这显示了投资者在美联储即将于周二召开的为期两天的政策会议之前变得更为谨慎小心。许多人期待这次会议将最终公布美联储再一次减息的消息，但将不会公布减息的幅度。美国股市开盘上涨，这已经是连续四天上涨。本轮上涨开始于巴菲特注资230亿购买Wrigley的股票，使其上涨了23%，而投资者Kirk Kerkorian收购了福特9%的股权，这些举动为市场注入了信心，使投资者相信公司收益上升会为他们带来获利。但是，由于标准普尔指数未能在关键的1400点获得支撑，导致了股市收盘前一小时大盘跌去了一天中的全部收益，收出一根阴线。黄金和原油期货表现较为坚挺。亚洲股市今晨高开，恒生指数上涨1.1%，MSCI A-P指数上涨0.8%，日经指数停盘。太平洋投资管理公司(Pimco)将会为它的第一支亚洲本地货币封闭基金交易信用衍生产品，而大额可转账存单（CDS）业务的开通已经证明了他们将在此领域有所作为。欧洲期货市场在公允值之下交易（平均下跌15个基点），主要是由于上一交易时段美国股市回调，同时也是德意志银行今晨公布了另一项巨额损失的缘故。这项损失导致德意志银行首席执行官Ackermann减少了持有的安联（ALV）公司的股份。
欧洲大陆今天消息面表现平淡，使得市场受到抑制。在美国，Cases-Shiller 的房地产价格指数和非盈利的研究机构Conference Board公布的消费者信心指数将从消息面带来首次真正的危机。尽管市场对美元信心有所恢复，这些数据还是能轻而易举地扑灭人们重新燃起的希望。这是两个明显的利空消息，而几乎没有稳定的信号。另外，市场人气的下降意味着购买美国房产将会比最初的预期支付更少的房屋退税。人们可能会希望选择还清贷款，这样可以节约或者冲抵不断上涨的能源价格，而只需花费很小一部分闲置资金。
在外汇市场我们希望印度今天可以收紧利率至25个基点，使关键购回协议价格指数回到8.00%。我们相信，印度和很多其他亚洲央行一样，因为担忧通货膨胀将会继续加息。
格林威治时间9：45——英国货币政策委员会(MPC)的King为财政委员会所做的报告。
欧元兑美元-
在这一阶段，很难说是一次回调的开始还是仅仅对前期走势的修正，但不管怎么说，压力主要在下行方面。以周五的低点1.5555为突破点，指数试探性的跌至1.5510和1.5341.相信在目前的压力位1.5775（最低）和1.5860将会阻止指数的上涨，但如果突破这一阻力位，则大盘会上冲至1.6000和1.6020。
美元兑日元-
以104.83点高开，收盘于104.95。盘中曾试探性升至105.50-90.若突破这一点，这很有可能上冲至108.60。在支撑位方面，第一低位是103.90，随后是103.22-33和102.20. 在这一位置应该能保持，但如果突破则将可能继续跌至101.40甚至100.00。
英镑兑美元-
最近市场的表现可被视为对前期走势的修正与弥补（接连几日的震荡整理），也预示着市场的主流趋势还是下跌。对后市的判断极端艰难，但市场升至1.9890点后有可能会升至2.0030-50，甚至2.0115和2.0200.下行方面，于1.9780点首获微弱支撑，之后跌至1.9677 和1.9600.预计之后市场颓势难挽，或将下跌到1.9505，而一旦跌至1.9337-63，那么1.8800-10将难以避免
Market Brief
Usd was range bound in Asian session as traders are looking to stay on the sidelines before the FOMC meeting Wednesday. Low volumes have been seen across all asset classes which is not surprising given the uncertainty and importance surrounding the Fed's announcement. The market is expecting a 25bp cut, however there is speculation, that the Fed will actually hold rates keeping thereby their powder dry untill they see more compelling data. UsdJpy is near a two year high and was able to rally in late Asia after an early morning sell off.
US stocks closed mixed as investors turned cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting starting Tuesday. Many expect the meeting to wrap up with the Fed cutting rates one more time, but then putting its easing cycle on hold. Initially, US stocks rose for what looked like the fourth day of gains after Warren Buffet financed the $23bln takeover of Wrigley (+23%) and Investor Kirk Kerkorian bought a stake in Ford (9%), boosting confidence that the market will gain as earnings improve. However, in the last hour of trading stocks gave back all intraday gains to close lower as buyers failed to close the S&P above the key 1400 level. Gold and crude oil futures finished firmer.Asian markets are higher this morning with the Hang Seng up 1.1% and the MSCI A-P is up 0.8%, while the Nikkei is closed today. Pimco will be trading credit derivatives for its first Asian local-currency bond fund, as CDS prove their appeal. European Futures are trading below fair value (- 15 Bps on avg), mainly due to US stocks retracement during the last trading hour and also because Deutsche Bank (DBK) announced this morning another major loss, which led Ackermann to reduce his stake into Allianz (ALV)
A light calendar for the Continent will have markets subdued. In the US Cases-Shiller house price index and Confidence Board’s consumer confidence will provide the first real event risk. Given the market's new found optimism in the greenback, these figures could easily damper the goodwill. These are two areas that have seen significant weaknesses with little signs of stabilizing. In addition weak confidence means that US households will spend less of their tax rebate then originally anticipated, choosing to pay off debts to save or offset spiraling energy cost with only a small portion heading to discretionary spending as was hoped.
In the EMs we expect India to tighten interest rates by 25bp today, bringing key repo rate to 8.00%. We believe India, along with many of the Asian Central banks, will continue to raise interest rates as concerns over inflation stiffle those of growth.
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