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Asian Session - EurUsd Regains After Collapse
Market Brief
We are still stunned by the EurUsd sell off yesterday but are withholding judgment until we see the trading direction today and Monday. We have seen five late week Usd buying in 2008 only to be reversed shortly after. However the break below the 22 day MA could be viewed as a bearish signal of the EurUsd. In addition the sell off in US bill curve has the Fed ending its easing cycle with a final 25bp cut and the corresponding sell of in crude with WTI falling 1.7% where also bullish Usd signals. EurUsd was able to rally slightly to the 1.5707 in Asian session but was unable to hold and has softened before the European open.
The trigger for the EurUsd move was the weak German IFO data which dropped well below expectations to 102.4 vs 104.3 exp. The decline was broad based with weak reading in other IFO indices. FX markets have been trading on the Eurozone inflation vs. growth story and believing that the economy is slowing, albeit at a moderating pace, conjecture that the ECB will be fully concentrated on handling spiraling inflationary pressures. The market clearly viewed this weak release as real evidence that the Eurozone might not hold up in the face of powerful global headwinds. But the magnitude of the sell off based on this single figure (remember in March the figure had surged to 104.8), which is only adjusting from an already elevated position, is questionable. Once again we are withholding judgment until we see some actually trading confirmation and are not ready to adjust our call for short term Usd weakness. But overall we don’t believe market sentiment has completely shifted in favour of the euro and more positive data next week from the Eurozone economy will support a re-assessment of yesterday's move.
US equity markets closed with gains on Thursday, on a massive day of earnings when over 200 companies reported. The S&P500 and DJIA closed with gains of 65-70bps, while the NASDAQ closed with a gain of 1.0%.Six of the ten sectors closed higher, with Financials (+3.8%) leading the way, as AIG (+7.1%) and Citigroup (+4.6%) powered the sector higher. US Economic data out yesterday was mixed, but mainly ignored. Asian markets are higher this morning, as the Nikkei rises 2.4%, the Hang Seng rises 0.1% and the MSCI A-P is up 1.2%. Results from Samsung Electronics helped sentiment and boosted stocks, while markets in Australia and NZ were closed for a holiday. European futures are looking to open slighly above fair value. After a huge week of earnings, Friday promises to be quiet.
South Korea's economy grew at its slowest rate in 3 years, as consumers and companies cut spending. China's yuan is set for its biggest weekly loss in five months as growthis expected to slow in the country in 2008
In Japan nationwide core CPI rose to 1.2% y/y while in Tokyo core CPI was up 0.7% but given the fireworks in the Usd have little market effect.
Markets will be keen to see the Michigan survey since many of the main consumer surveys have been soft. Should the figure print in line with expecations, it would mark a 28 year low.
A light calendar today will allow us to gauge market sentiment and trading behavior around the Usd.
8.30gmt - ECB’s Weber speaks on German fin’l legislation
9.00gmt - SNB’s Roth speaks at SNB shareholder meeting
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