今日汇评
亚洲市场—原油价格推高
周二，美元资本市场产生退步，整个交易额令人失望。此外，周三发布的房屋销售数据仍处于下降趋势，对于看好行情的投资者可以说不存在任何积极因素。亚洲市场今天上午呈现获利趋势，日经指数Nikkei上升0.6&，恒生指数上升0.9%，MSCI A-P上升0.8%。由于商品制造商提高商品价格，股票达到两个月以来的新高。友达光电报告的盈利记录反映了当前技术行业的发展情形。由于在提高了产品价格后，提高了净收入预期，罗氏集团日本分公司日本中外制药株式会社利润上涨了10%。必和必拓公司报告其第三季度铁矿石产量提高了22%。主要欧洲指数（Euro stoxx 50, DAX & CAC）比市场公平交易值(平均+ 10 Bps)略高。
欧洲区域的能源价格出现的通胀短期内不会出现缓和，欧洲央行执行理事强硬派的评论更是证明了这一点。欧洲央行Noyer说利率可能会出现两个方向任一方向的走势。并且欧洲央行在明年会尽一切可能确保通胀率低于2.0%。尽管各项指数再怎么上涨，欧洲区域还是会洋溢着乐观情绪。
澳大利亚CPI指数达到了17年来新高4.2%，之前的历史最高值是4.0%exp以及3。0%。这一数据比澳洲联储舒适带高出2-3%，中央银行必须时刻保持警惕。然而国内经济缓和信号以及澳洲联储最近一次会议纪要的中立论调使得欧元市场落空，如同今天市场趋势的表现，澳洲联储2008年需要继续保持高度敏感状态。
从瑞典中央银行和挪威中央银行今日下午将发布最新利率决定。我们预期瑞典中央银行利率将保持在4.255，而挪威中央银行的屡屡将提高25bp，达到5.50%（银行理事Svein Gjedrem上周发表的评论证明了这一点）。从目前的交易环境来看，挪威克朗是最受欢迎的货币，我们预期瑞典克朗将受到强化的贸易偏见和息差带来的支撑。
大陆板块的制造业采购经理人指数预计，欧洲区域经济将出现小幅膨胀，但管材价格仍然会居高不下。不管怎么说，至少有某一个方面会使欧洲央行执行理事得到某个程度的欣慰。
我们预期，英国央行货币政策委员会纪要表明了一致通过，将利率降低25bp，降至5.00%的决议（然而，MPC成员Blanchflower呼吁将利率再降低50bps）。市场关注点将落在货币政策委员会是否会相信信贷危机是否已达到需要采取必要的、更强势的缓和措施的程度。
欧元兑美元
维持这一阶段趋势着实有些困难，但我得说上升趋势仍在持续，但将在最后一个更高位展开（终结时呈楔形）。该货币对需要清除昨日的最高位1.6020，达到1.6100-10这一绝佳的顶点位置。在此之上，可能达到1.6180和1.6300-05。当前支持位位于1.5893和1.5835。一旦冲破该支持位，将意味着货币对将走低至1.5792甚至1.5710-20。
美元兑日元
指数在104.66的高位上继续上升至104.95和105.50-90.在这之上，指数很可能从108.60下探。如果遇到支撑，指数应该在102.95 和102.20保持。否则会继续下探至101.40和100.00。
英镑兑美元
昨日该货币对达到1.9999，至今仍未达到2.0029-50阻力位。若该阻力位让位，我相信，该货币对阻力位将返回至2.0193和2.0275。若英镑对美元这对货币对不能清除该阻力位，将会产生快速反弹，重新回复至开盘时的支持位1.9745和1.9690。
Market Brief
Pressure on the Usd continued in Asian session as crude futures reached a new record high of $119.90brl. Prices in crude will dominate the Usd price movement in the near term. Crude prices were supported by supply worries connected to refinery strike in Scotland and potential disruptions in Nigeria. Increasing risk appetite and surging commodity prices has given a strong boost to Aud, Nzd and Nok. Factors that we don’t expect will shift in the short term. In addition, support for carry trades especially those funded in Jpy has gained traction, with AudJpy touching the psychological 98.00lvl.
US equity markets lost ground on Tuesday, as earnings on the whole proved to be disappointing. In addition, existing home sales for March showing continued decline in the housing sector, there was little positive to grab on to for bullish investors. Asian markets are posting gains this morning, with the Nikkei up 0.6%, the Hang Seng up 0.9% and MSCI A-P up 0.8%. Stocks hit a 2 month high, as commodity producers rose on the back of record prices. AU Optronics reported record profits, helping sentiment in the tech sector. Chugai, the Japanese unit of Roche, rose nearly 10%, as it raised its net income forecast following planned price increases. BHP Billiton reported that its iron ore output rose 22% in its Q3. Majors Europeans Index ( Euro stoxx 50, DAX & CAC) are trading slightly above fair value ( + 10 Bps on average).
With energy prices surging inflation in the Eurozone doesn’t look to be easing any time soon, while hawkish comments by the ECB members provide additional evidence. ECB’s Noyer stated that interest rate could go in either direction and the ECB will do whatever is necessary to ensure inflation drops below 2.0% next year. The bullish sentiment surrounding the Eur should last even with the Eur at these elevated levels.
Australian CPI surged to the highest level in 17 years reaching 4.2% vs. 4.0% exp and 3.0% prior reading. This figure is well above the RBA comfort zone of 2-3% and central bank will have to stay nimble. If signals of moderation in the domestic economy and the neutral tone in the last RBA minutes keep the market sentiment on the Aud bearish, data like we have seen today will move the RBA, in all probability, to hike again in 2008.
Riksbank and Norges Bank will be announcing their rate decision this afternoon. We are expecting the Riksbank to hold the rate steady at 4.255 and Norges to hike 25bp to 5.50% (comments made by the Bank’s Governor, Svein Gjedrem, last week supports this view). Given the current environment Nok is one of our favorite currencies and expect the krona to stay supported by tightening bias and interest rate differentials.
On the continent flash PMI survey is expected the eurozone economy as expanded slightly but pipeline price pressure remain elevated. At least one side will give ECB members some level of comfort.
We are expecting the BoE MPC minutes to show an unanimous vote to cut interest rates by 25bp to 5.00% (however there is a decent probability that Blanchflower called for a 50bps cut again). The market will also focus on whether the committee believe the credit crisis is reaching a point were more aggressive easing is necessary.
18.00gmt - MPC’s Sentance Speaks on Monetary Policy
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