|
亚洲市场—资本撤退
今日汇评
美元今日在亚洲市场略显强势。并且昨天交易者大规模的撤退也是其中原因之一。因为Nikkei未能跟随美元走势，反降超过-1、08%，美元兑日元低至 102.80。OPEC原油价格持续在$117bll盘旋，以及尼日利亚所遭受的困扰，使得原油这一日用品持续面对重重压力。
英镑持续下滑，造成这一后果的原因在于，英国央行的抵押贷款拯救计划未能达到市场预期令交易者倍感失望。在此计划下，英国央行将使用英国国债交换商业抵押作担保的证券。与联邦储备局相关计划相似，该计划旨在缓解偿债能力，提升大众信心。然而过早的猜测成败得失只会增加计划实施壁垒，增加额外费用，却不能够将不具备有效的抵押资产的贷款者筛选去除。当然，我们还是认为在住房以外的基础生活方面条件的广泛恶化以及居民消费的过多支出都会给英镑带来重重压力。
我们期待加拿大央行降低利率50bp至3.00%exp，达到市场预期。目前，市场价格是48bp，对于联邦储备局良性投资循环的下滑走势，来自中央银行的评论使得我们相信他们也正处于观望阶段。加拿大受高物价以及依赖美元、国内经济发展迟缓影响。压力使得美元对加元短期内会保持在1.000-1.0330的范围内。
格林威治时间12：00 –英国央行货币政策委员会Besley就通胀和全球经济发表讲话
欧元兑美元
维持这一阶段趋势着实有些困难，但我得说上升趋势仍在持续。同时，我们可以看到，如果突破了1.5711和1.5658，将会招致更多损失。在上行区域中第一个阻力位在1.5985，随后突破了心理位1.6000。在1.6000之上，指数尝试性地升至1.6040，1.6100-05 与1.6181。
美元兑日元
美元兑日元——指数在104.66的高位上继续上升至104.95和105.50-90.在这之上，指数很可能从108.60下探。如果遇到支撑，指数应该在102.95 和102.20保持。否则会继续下探至101.40和100.00。
英镑兑美元
高至2.0029，抛弃了2.0050点，重新呈现下滑趋势。指数很可能从1.9690下探。若这一点让位，将可能进一步下探至1.9600。在上行区域，为缓解货币压力，该货币对必须返升至1.9884并尝试冲击2.0029-50。
Market Brief
Usd was slightly stronger in Asian session and as traders retreated from yesterday strong rally. UsdJpy fell to a session low of 102.80 as the Nikkei failed to follow the US and fell over -1.08%. Crude price firmed around the $117bll as OPEC and trouble in Nigeria kept the commodity under pressure.
EurUsd saw a sharp sell off just before the European open. While the exact reason are somewhat unclear there is growing speculation that the move by Germany BdB banking associations to take control of property lender Duesseldorf Hypothekenbank (lender ran into problems created to the credit crisis) scared the market.
The Gbp continued to slide as disappointment around the BoE mortgage rescue plan which failed to meet the markets expectations grows. Under the scheme the BoE will swap UK Gov bonds for select commercial mortgage securities. The idea, similar to the Feds, is aimed at easing liquidity issues and lifting slumping confidence. While too early to gauge success or failure, creating higher barriers and additional costs should be a means by which to filter out those that don’t have true funding issues which will be a positive. However we are still bearish on the Gbp as broad deterioration in fundamentals outside of the housing sector and spillover into consumer spending will pressure growth.
We are expecting the BoC to cut rates by 50bp to 3.00% exp in line with market expectations. Currently the market is pricing in 48bp of easing and comments from central banks have led us to believe that the are looking to follow the Fed's aggressive easing cycle downwards. Cad is beginning to be pulled by two forces: the higher commodity prices and exposure to the US and slowdown in domestic growth. Both these forces should keep UsdCad in a 1.000 - 1.0330 range near term.
12.00gmt - MPC’s Besley Speaks on Inflation & the Global Economy
|
