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今日汇评
在昨天经受住由于欧洲区发布的通胀指数偏高、原油价格攀升至新高$115.17bbl带来的相当大的压力后，今日，美元在亚洲市场呈现平稳态势。亚洲资本市场略有上扬，延续美元的强势表现（道琼斯指数上涨+2.07%），欧元指数有望开盘于高于公平价值的水平。增长的风险投资胃口和欧洲央行一度持有的强硬语气，使得美元在短期内备受压力。加上此外，息差交易反复无常的市场情形有所和，冲击性价格背后的商品货币 （关注美元兑挪威克朗）显得分外有吸引力。市场今天可能会尤其关注美元收益，这一因素将可能很轻易便可逆转当期市场风险气氛。
说实在的，短期内预期美元将日显沉闷，欧洲央行不做任何回应，高于1.6000的欧元兑美元会否也会出现落后迟滞态势？联邦利率已接近我们预期的1.0 -1.25% 利率（美国住房数据跌至17年最低谷，并且尚不能确定是否出现新的谷底值），欧洲区通胀指数上涨趋势出现新一轮高数值，促进了人们对与1.7000数值的讨论。参考联邦基金期货比1.75%略低的数值，这一数据显得有些偏高。因此美元数据可能出现回旋下滑，联邦Fed利率将继续其平稳走势（虽然各方呼吁停止降息的呼声已非常普遍），因而市场需要进行快速调整（尤其是需要调整位于1.5850 lvls附近的美元空头）。
欧洲和美国今日经济日历记录较为平淡。
20.20中欧时间--英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)委员Bean在伦敦发表讲话
欧元兑美元——
该货币对在冲破了1.5905-15的一个重要阻力位置。上行第一阻力位位于1.5980，下一个目标位置是在1.6091和1.6251前的1.6020位置。先前提到的1.5905阻力位称为在1.5869，1.5800和1.5745前可能最先出现的新支撑位。
美元兑日元——
最近的高位102.95正面临危险，进而可能是103.60和104.52。第一支撑位是处于100.77和100.21前的101.25，这一指数之前的数值是98.51。
英镑兑美元——
新的交易日，出现指数新高！在0.8113前出现的第一（微弱）阻力位位于0.8098。上行发面的发展趋势是0.8265。在下行方面，趋势为0.8065, 0.8024, 0.7964, 0.7910 进而达到0.7822，若这一点失守，0.7745将再度面临风险
Usd was stable in Asian Session after coming under considerable pressure yesterday as EuroZone inflation hit higher grounds and crude rose to a new record of $115.17bbl. Asian equity markets are slightly higher and European indexes are looking to open above fair value continuing the strong US performance (Dow rose by 2.07%). The combination of increasing risk appetite and an ECB that is expected to keep its hawkish tone for a while should keep Usd under pressure in the near term. In addition carry trades as volatility has come down and commodity currency (one might want to watch the UsdNok) on the back of surging prices are looking increasingly appealing. Market will be particularly aware of US earnings today which could easily shift risk sentiment.
With the short term outlook for the US looking increasingly gloomy and an ECB not moving any time soon could a EurUsd above 1.6000 be very unrealistic? As the Fed moves closer to our forecasted 1.0 -1.25% fed rate (US housing starts to a 17 year low and still no bottom is sight) and upward revision in EuroZone inflation to a new series high, the market is considering the price to reach 1.7000. This being said, this figure seems a little high, according to Fed Funds futures that is fixed on 1.75% and this rate has in fact been priced in. However should US data continue to spiral down and the Fed continued on is aggressive easing path- although calls for a halt in rate cut have become more prevalent - the market will need to quickly adjust (especially in the Usd shorts which were built around the 1.5850 levels).
Light Calendar in Europe and US today.
20.20gmt - MPC’s Bean Speaks in London
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